luckadjusted

Week 12 2024 · November 24, 2024

Buccaneers at Giants, Week 12 2024: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Giants 30–7, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Buccaneers win 9 of 10. The Giants had the bounces: injuries alone were worth 2.0 points to the Giants.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 68% favorites.

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30
New York Giants 7

November 24, 2024 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −6.5

Luck index +9 Buccaneers about even · −9 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 9, Giants win 1.

  1. 1 TB 34 NYG 0
  2. 2 TB 42 NYG 17
  3. 3 TB 33 NYG 13
  4. 4 TB 24 NYG 7
  5. 5 TB 23 NYG 9
  6. 6 TB 21 NYG 10
  7. 7 TB 16 NYG 7
  8. 8 TB 13 NYG 7
  9. 9 TB 17 NYG 14
  10. 10 TB 17 NYG 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 91% of them, Giants 9%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 23.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+52.4%
Buccaneers by 9–1620.8%
Buccaneers by 1–817.7%
Level after regulation1.7%
Giants by 1–85.4%
Giants by 9–161.8%
Giants by 17+0.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Buccaneers by 23. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Buccaneers by 18.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. McLaughlin, 23 yds made · 99% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Giants’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 58%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Giants were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 15:00 C. Otton dropped a catchable passDrops · 13 drops on 165 catchable balls before this +5% NYG TB: Touchdown
2 Q1 14:16 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +5% TB TB: Touchdown
3 Q1 12:19 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +7% TB TB: Touchdown
4 Q1 10:19 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected +5% NYG TB: Touchdown
5 Q1 9:35 The Buccaneers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected +7% TB TB: Touchdown
6 Q1 0:07 The Giants were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +7% TB NYG: Punt
7 Q2 0:12 The Buccaneers missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 94% of the time +5% NYG TB: Touchdown
8 Q3 11:05 The Giants fumbled and the Buccaneers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +3% TB NYG: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Andrew Thomas (NYG T), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Tristan Wirfs (TB T), out · 1.6 pts
  • Chris Godwin (TB WR), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Tykee Smith (TB SS), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 100% · Giants 0%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 23
Luck in points
4.2 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 18.8
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 91% · Giants 9% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2024 games · Buccaneers · Giants

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