Week 12 2024 · November 24, 2024
Lions at Colts, Week 12 2024: who deserved to win?
The Lions beat the Colts 24–6, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Lions win 10 of 10.
Before kickoff the Lions were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 9:05 left): Offensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Alec Pierce), 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 11 points of win probability to the Lions.
Final
 Detroit Lions | 24 |
|---|---|
 Indianapolis Colts | 6 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +3 Lions about even · −3 Colts
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Lions win 10, Colts win 0.
- 1 DET 34 IND 0
- 2 DET 41 IND 13
- 3 DET 31 IND 7
- 4 DET 23 IND 3
- 5 DET 24 IND 7
- 6 DET 20 IND 7
- 7 DET 20 IND 9
- 8 DET 35 IND 26
- 9 DET 14 IND 8
- 10 DET 19 IND 17
Your call
Did the Lions earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Lions win 97% of them, Colts 3%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 18.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Lions by 17+ | 70.7% |
| Lions by 9–16 | 18.6% |
| Lions by 1–8 | 7.6% |
| Level after regulation | 0.5% |
| Colts by 1–8 | 2.3% |
| Colts by 9–16 | 0.3% |
| Colts by 17+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- M. Gay, 27 yds made · 98% expected
- M. Gay, 29 yds made · 97% expected
- J. Bates, 56 yds made · 69% expected
Penalties: Lions 5 for 45 yards, Colts 10 for 75 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:07 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Colts, 5 yards | +3% DET +0.9 pts |
| Q1 3:17 | Offensive Holding on the Colts (Andrew Ogletree), 11 yards, wiping out the play | +8% DET +3.2 pts |
| Q2 12:33 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Colts (Jaylon Jones), 2 yards | +2% DET +0.5 pts |
| Q2 3:34 | Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +7% DET +2.6 pts |
| Q2 0:20 | False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% IND 0.0 pts |
| Q3 9:53 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Colts, 8 yards, wiping out the play | +4% DET +1.9 pts |
| Q3 9:05 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Alec Pierce), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +11% DET +4.1 pts |
| Q3 2:24 | Taunting on the Lions (Jahmyr Gibbs), 15 yards | +2% IND +1.4 pts |
| Q3 0:38 | Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +4% DET +2.5 pts |
| Q4 13:21 | False Start on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% DET +0.8 pts |
| Q4 10:24 | Intentional Grounding on the Colts (Anthony Richardson), 9 yards | +1% DET +0.8 pts |
| Q4 10:18 | Ineligible Downfield Kick on the Colts (Kylen Granson), 5 yards | 0% DET +0.5 pts |
| Q4 10:08 | False Start on the Lions (Jahmyr Gibbs), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% IND +0.7 pts |
| Q4 5:59 | Lowering the Head to Make Forcible Contact on the Lions (Brian Branch), 15 yards | 0% IND +1.0 pts |
| Q4 3:55 | False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% IND +0.7 pts |
Lions penalties, every game · Colts penalties, every game · All teams, 2024
When it happened
Colts’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 70%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 5:32 | The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected | +5% IND | DET: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 3:55 | The Colts converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +5% IND | IND: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 3:17 | Offensive Holding on the Colts (Andrew Ogletree), 11 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 841 snaps before, position avg 1 per 280 | +8% DET | DET: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 14:18 | The Lions converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +7% DET | DET: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 4:24 | The Lions converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +4% DET | DET: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 3:34 | Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +7% DET | DET: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 9:57 | The Lions were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected | +11% IND | DET: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 9:05 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Alec Pierce), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 3 flags in 2382 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 | +11% DET | DET: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Bernhard Raimann (IND T), out · 0.9 pts
- Ryan Kelly (IND C), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Will Fries (IND G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Aidan Hutchinson (DET DE), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
- Terrion Arnold (DET CB), out · 0.8 pts
- Alex Anzalone (DET LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Al-Quadin Muhammad (DET DE), out · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Lions 84% · Colts 16%
- Final margin
- Lions by 18
- Luck in points
- 10.9 for the Lions
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Lions by 7.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Lions 97% · Colts 3% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2024 games · 
Lions · 
Colts
More from Week 12 2024
- Steelers at Browns CLE 24–19 · replay 26% for the winner
- Cowboys at Commanders DAL 34–26 · replay 34% for the winner
- Chiefs at Panthers KC 30–27 · replay 95% for the winner
- Vikings at Bears MIN 30–27 · replay 89% for the winner
- Patriots at Dolphins MIA 34–15 · replay 89% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Giants TB 30–7 · replay 93% for the winner
- Titans at Texans TEN 32–27 · replay 55% for the winner
- Broncos at Raiders DEN 29–19 · replay 29% for the winner
- Cardinals at Seahawks SEA 16–6 · replay 39% for the winner
- 49ers at Packers GB 38–10 · replay 96% for the winner
- Eagles at Rams PHI 37–20 · replay 94% for the winner
- Ravens at Chargers BAL 30–23 · replay 85% for the winner