Week 12 2024 · November 24, 2024
Eagles at Rams, Week 12 2024: who deserved to win?
The Eagles beat the Rams 37–20, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Eagles win 9 of 10.
Before kickoff the Eagles were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 11:43 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Isaiah Rodgers), 31 yards, worth 10 points of win probability to the Rams.
Final
 Philadelphia Eagles | 37 |
|---|---|
 Los Angeles Rams | 20 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +6 Eagles about even · −6 Rams
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Eagles win 9, Rams win 1.
- 1 PHI 38 LA 6
- 2 PHI 38 LA 13
- 3 PHI 31 LA 10
- 4 PHI 38 LA 20
- 5 PHI 38 LA 23
- 6 PHI 22 LA 10
- 7 PHI 35 LA 26
- 8 PHI 27 LA 21
- 9 PHI 24 LA 21
- 10 PHI 23 LA 28
Your call
Did the Eagles earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Eagles win 94% of them, Rams 6%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 17.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Eagles by 17+ | 55.9% |
| Eagles by 9–16 | 22.1% |
| Eagles by 1–8 | 15.0% |
| Level after regulation | 0.7% |
| Rams by 1–8 | 4.3% |
| Rams by 9–16 | 1.6% |
| Rams by 17+ | 0.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- J. Elliott, 21 yds made · 99% expected
- J. Elliott, 31 yds made · 97% expected
- J. Karty, 47 yds missed · 79% expected
- J. Elliott, 26 yds made · 98% expected
Penalties: Eagles 4 for 52 yards, Rams 4 for 38 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 1:11 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Darius Slay), 6 yards | +4% LA +1.3 pts |
| Q2 8:02 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Eagles, 5 yards | +3% LA +1.1 pts |
| Q2 0:26 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Rams (Quentin Lake), 12 yards | +1% PHI +0.4 pts |
| Q3 11:43 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Isaiah Rodgers), 31 yards | +10% LA +4.1 pts |
| Q3 2:26 | Offensive Holding on the Rams, 10 yards | +4% PHI +1.3 pts |
| Q4 6:23 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Rams (Puka Nacua), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +3% PHI +1.7 pts |
| Q4 4:19 | Defensive Offside on the Rams (Tyler Davis), 6 yards · pre-snap | 0% PHI +2.0 pts |
| Q4 1:07 | Illegal Bat on the Eagles (Dallas Goedert), 10 yards | 0% LA +0.9 pts |
Eagles penalties, every game · Rams penalties, every game · All teams, 2024
When it happened
Rams’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 67%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:38 | The Rams fumbled and the Eagles recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% PHI | LA: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 15:00 | The Eagles converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected | +5% PHI | PHI: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 11:53 | The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +5% PHI | LA: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 8:51 | The Eagles converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +7% PHI | PHI: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 0:11 | A. Brown dropped a catchable passDrops · 10 drops on 273 catchable balls before this | +6% LA | PHI: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q2 0:07 | The Eagles were stopped on 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +5% LA | PHI: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 11:43 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Isaiah Rodgers), 31 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 1748 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 | +10% LA | LA: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 7:05 | The Eagles converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +7% PHI | PHI: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Rob Havenstein (LA T), out · 1.0 pts
- Troy Reeder (LA LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- DeVonta Smith (PHI WR), out · 1.4 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Eagles 100% · Rams 0%
- Final margin
- Eagles by 17
- Luck in points
- 0.9 for the Eagles
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Eagles by 16.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Eagles 94% · Rams 6% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2024 games · 
Eagles · 
Rams
More from Week 12 2024
- Steelers at Browns CLE 24–19 · replay 26% for the winner
- Cowboys at Commanders DAL 34–26 · replay 34% for the winner
- Lions at Colts DET 24–6 · replay 97% for the winner
- Chiefs at Panthers KC 30–27 · replay 95% for the winner
- Vikings at Bears MIN 30–27 · replay 89% for the winner
- Patriots at Dolphins MIA 34–15 · replay 89% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Giants TB 30–7 · replay 93% for the winner
- Titans at Texans TEN 32–27 · replay 55% for the winner
- Broncos at Raiders DEN 29–19 · replay 29% for the winner
- Cardinals at Seahawks SEA 16–6 · replay 39% for the winner
- 49ers at Packers GB 38–10 · replay 96% for the winner
- Ravens at Chargers BAL 30–23 · replay 85% for the winner