luckadjusted

Week 12 2024 · November 24, 2024

Cardinals at Seahawks, Week 12 2024: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the Cardinals 16–6, but the Cardinals played well enough to win it: they take 6 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 3.5 points to the Seahawks.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q3, 7:25 left): the Cardinals were stopped on 4th & 1, worth 45 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

Final

Arizona Cardinals 6
Seattle Seahawks 16

November 24, 2024 · Lumen Field · Closing line: Cardinals −1

Luck index +61 Seahawks very lucky · −61 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cardinals win 6, Seahawks win 4.

  1. 1 ARI 27 SEA 3
  2. 2 ARI 24 SEA 9
  3. 3 ARI 20 SEA 9
  4. 4 ARI 34 SEA 26
  5. 5 ARI 29 SEA 24
  6. 6 ARI 24 SEA 21
  7. 7 ARI 32 SEA 34
  8. 8 ARI 17 SEA 24
  9. 9 ARI 20 SEA 31
  10. 10 ARI 3 SEA 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cardinals win 61% of them, Seahawks 39%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cardinals by 17+14.5%
Cardinals by 9–1617.6%
Cardinals by 1–827.0%
Level after regulation2.9%
Seahawks by 1–819.3%
Seahawks by 9–1612.7%
Seahawks by 17+6.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Seahawks by 10. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Cardinals by 0.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Ryland, 35 yds made · 92% expected
  • C. Ryland, 22 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Myers, 50 yds made · 73% expected
  • C. Ryland, 47 yds missed · 73% expected
  • Extra point missed · 70% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Seahawks’ chance of winning

As low as 42% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Seahawks were ahead in it, below while the Cardinals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:47 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +7% SEA SEA: Punt
2 Q2 14:05 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks (Pharaoh Brown), 6 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 21 flags in 2564 snaps before, position avg 1 per 280 +7% ARI ARI: Field goal
3 Q2 9:57 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +15% SEA SEA: Punt
4 Q2 6:32 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +7% ARI SEA: Punt
5 Q2 1:17 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +8% SEA SEA: Touchdown
6 Q3 7:25 The Cardinals were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expectedThe Cardinals threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's handsUnsportsmanlike Conduct on the Seahawks (Devon Witherspoon), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 10 flags in 1582 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215Return touchdown by the SeahawksSpecial teams +45% SEA ARI: Punt
7 Q4 15:00 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expectedThe Seahawks threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +8% ARI SEA: Field goal
8 Q4 11:28 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +11% ARI ARI: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Noah Fant (SEA TE), out · 0.6 pts
  • Stone Forsythe (SEA T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Will Hernandez (ARI G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jalen Thompson (ARI FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Matt Prater (ARI K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cardinals 60% · Seahawks 40%

Final margin
Seahawks by 10
Luck in points
10.5 for the Seahawks
Luck-adjusted margin
Cardinals by 0.5
Replay with same day's form
Cardinals 61% · Seahawks 39% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2024 games · Cardinals · Seahawks

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