luckadjusted

Week 2 2020 · September 20, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Jaguars at Titans, Week 2 2020: who deserved to win?

The Titans beat the Jaguars 33–30 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Jaguars had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 2.6 points to the Jaguars.

Before kickoff the Titans were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 7:29 left): the Jaguars converted 3rd & 7, worth 13 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars 30
Tennessee Titans 33

September 20, 2020 · Nissan Stadium · Closing line: Titans −7

Luck index +34 Titans lucky · −34 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jaguars win 3, Titans win 7.

  1. 1 JAX 34 TEN 20
  2. 2 JAX 24 TEN 17
  3. 3 JAX 20 TEN 17
  4. 4 JAX 27 TEN 29
  5. 5 JAX 23 TEN 28
  6. 6 JAX 33 TEN 40
  7. 7 JAX 14 TEN 25
  8. 8 JAX 17 TEN 31
  9. 9 JAX 19 TEN 38
  10. 10 JAX 13 TEN 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jaguars win 33% of them, Titans 67%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jaguars by 17+4.3%
Jaguars by 9–169.6%
Jaguars by 1–819.4%
Level after regulation2.4%
Titans by 1–826.3%
Titans by 9–1619.8%
Titans by 17+18.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Titans by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Titans by 2.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Lambo, 35 yds made · 94% expected
  • S. Gostkowski, 51 yds made · 68% expected
  • S. Gostkowski, 49 yds made · 72% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Titans’ chance of winning

As low as 49% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Titans were ahead in it, below while the Jaguars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:01 The Jaguars converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +7% JAX JAX: Turnover
2 Q1 3:47 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +7% JAX JAX: Touchdown
3 Q4 14:22 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +6% JAX JAX: Touchdown
4 Q4 7:29 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +13% JAX JAX: Touchdown
5 Q4 6:53 Defensive Holding on the Jaguars (Taven Bryan), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 543 snaps before, position avg 1 per 262 +7% TEN TEN: Punt
6 Q4 3:38 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +6% TEN JAX: Punt
7 Q4 1:57 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Myles Jack), 8 yardsJudgment calls · 6 flags in 688 snaps before, position avg 1 per 395 +11% TEN TEN: Field goal
8 Q4 1:41 S. Gostkowski made 49-yard field goalKicks · 72% expected for him, 1 of 3 from 45+ before +10% TEN TEN: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • A.J. Brown (TEN WR), out · 1.6 pts
  • Adoree' Jackson (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Dede Westbrook (JAX WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Quincy Williams (JAX LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jarrod Wilson (JAX FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jaguars 37% · Titans 63%

Final margin
Titans by 3
Luck in points
0.3 for the Titans
Luck-adjusted margin
Titans by 2.7
Replay with same day's form
Jaguars 33% · Titans 67% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2020 games · Jaguars · Titans

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