luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 2 2020 · September 20, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Jaguars at Titans, Week 2 2020: who deserved to win?

The Titans beat the Jaguars 33–30, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Titans were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:57 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Myles Jack), 8 yards, worth 11 points of win probability to the Titans.

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars 30
Tennessee Titans 33

September 20, 2020 · Nissan Stadium · Closing line: Titans −7

Luck index +32 Titans lucky · −32 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jaguars win 3, Titans win 7.

  1. 1 JAX 30 TEN 15
  2. 2 JAX 29 TEN 21
  3. 3 JAX 30 TEN 27
  4. 4 JAX 27 TEN 30
  5. 5 JAX 19 TEN 24
  6. 6 JAX 13 TEN 20
  7. 7 JAX 10 TEN 20
  8. 8 JAX 17 TEN 30
  9. 9 JAX 17 TEN 35
  10. 10 JAX 16 TEN 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jaguars win 32% of them, Titans 68%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jaguars by 17+4.3%
Jaguars by 9–168.1%
Jaguars by 1–816.8%
Level after regulation3.9%
Titans by 1–825.0%
Titans by 9–1620.5%
Titans by 17+21.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.2 points to the Jaguars: the final margin was Titans by 3, without the luck Titans by 4.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Lambo, 35 yds made · 94% expected
  • S. Gostkowski, 51 yds made · 67% expected
  • S. Gostkowski, 49 yds made · 70% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jaguars 8 for 60 yards, Titans 4 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 3:14 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% JAX +0.7 pts
Q1 3:14 False Start on the Titans (Derrick Henry), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% JAX +0.2 pts
Q1 2:14 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% JAX +0.4 pts
Q1 0:24 Encroachment on the Jaguars (Taven Bryan), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TEN +0.7 pts
Q2 10:27 Delay of Game on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TEN +0.7 pts
Q2 4:38 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Josh Jones), 22 yards +4% TEN +2.2 pts
Q3 7:04 Defensive Holding on the Jaguars, 5 yards 0% TEN +0.3 pts
Q3 7:04 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TEN 0.0 pts
Q3 5:03 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Jaguars (Adam Gotsis), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TEN +0.5 pts
Q4 12:27 Face Mask on the Titans (Rashaan Evans), 15 yards +2% JAX +0.9 pts
Q4 6:53 Defensive Holding on the Jaguars (Taven Bryan), 5 yards +7% TEN +0.9 pts
Q4 1:57 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Myles Jack), 8 yards +11% TEN +0.7 pts

Jaguars penalties, every game · Titans penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Titans’ chance of winning

As low as 49% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Titans were ahead in it, below while the Jaguars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:32 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +5% JAX JAX: Turnover
2 Q1 9:01 The Jaguars converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +6% JAX JAX: Turnover
3 Q1 0:24 The Titans converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expectedEncroachment on the Jaguars (Taven Bryan), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 2 flags in 543 snaps before, position avg 1 per 262 +6% TEN TEN: Punt
4 Q4 7:29 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +9% JAX JAX: Touchdown
5 Q4 6:53 Defensive Holding on the Jaguars (Taven Bryan), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 543 snaps before, position avg 1 per 262 +7% TEN TEN: Punt
6 Q4 3:38 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +6% TEN JAX: Punt
7 Q4 1:57 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Myles Jack), 8 yardsJudgment calls · 6 flags in 688 snaps before, position avg 1 per 395 +11% TEN TEN: Field goal
8 Q4 1:41 S. Gostkowski made a 49-yard field goalKicks · 70% expected for him, 1 of 3 from 45+ before +10% TEN TEN: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • A.J. Brown (TEN WR), out · 1.6 pts
  • Adoree' Jackson (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Dede Westbrook (JAX WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Quincy Williams (JAX LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jarrod Wilson (JAX FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jaguars 23% · Titans 77%

Final margin
Titans by 3
Luck in points
1.2 for the Jaguars
Luck-adjusted margin
Titans by 4.2
Replay with same day's form
Jaguars 32% · Titans 68% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2020 games · Jaguars · Titans

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