luckadjusted

Week 2 2020 · September 21, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Saints at Raiders, Week 2 2020: who deserved to win?

The Raiders stole one. They beat the Saints 34–24, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Saints win 8 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 7.4 points to the Raiders.

Before kickoff the Saints were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 1:49 left): the Raiders converted 3rd & 9, worth 13 points of win probability to the Raiders.

Final

New Orleans Saints 24
Las Vegas Raiders 34

September 21, 2020 · Allegiant Stadium · Closing line: Saints −4

Luck index +81 Raiders very lucky · −81 Saints

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Saints win 8, Raiders win 2.

  1. 1 NO 45 LV 20
  2. 2 NO 30 LV 10
  3. 3 NO 23 LV 7
  4. 4 NO 33 LV 20
  5. 5 NO 37 LV 28
  6. 6 NO 17 LV 10
  7. 7 NO 35 LV 31
  8. 8 NO 26 LV 24
  9. 9 NO 31 LV 34
  10. 10 NO 6 LV 17

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Saints win 81% of them, Raiders 19%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Raiders by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Saints by 17+29.4%
Saints by 9–1622.8%
Saints by 1–828.3%
Level after regulation2.5%
Raiders by 1–810.9%
Raiders by 9–164.7%
Raiders by 17+1.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Raiders by 10. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Saints by 0.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Lutz, 31 yds made · 96% expected
  • D. Carlson, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • D. Carlson, 54 yds made · 65% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Raiders’ chance of winning

As low as 24% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Raiders were ahead in it, below while the Saints were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:39 The Saints converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +10% NO NO: Touchdown
2 Q2 5:27 The Saints converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +8% NO NO: Touchdown
3 Q2 2:37 The Raiders converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +8% LV LV: Touchdown
4 Q2 1:49 The Raiders converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +13% LV LV: Touchdown
5 Q3 14:16 Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Marshon Lattimore), 20 yardsJudgment calls · 7 flags in 968 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +7% LV LV: Touchdown
6 Q3 10:03 The Raiders converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +10% LV LV: Touchdown
7 Q3 9:07 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% NO LV: Turnover
8 Q4 14:14 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expectedThe Raiders fumbled and the Saints recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +12% NO LV: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Trent Brown (LV T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Tyrell Williams (LV WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Michael Thomas (NO WR), out · 1.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Saints 55% · Raiders 45%

Final margin
Raiders by 10
Luck in points
10.7 for the Raiders
Luck-adjusted margin
Saints by 0.7
Replay with same day's form
Saints 81% · Raiders 19% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2020 games · Saints · Raiders

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