Week 2 2020 · September 20, 2020
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Giants at Bears, Week 2 2020: who deserved to win?
The Bears beat the Giants 17–13, but the Giants played well enough to win it: they take 8 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 3.1 points to the Bears.
The Bears won on an off day: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Giants they would win 64% of the time; with this day’s form, 22%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Bears were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:04 left): Offensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Golden Tate), 0 yards, worth 45 points of win probability to the Bears.
Final
 New York Giants | 13 |
|---|---|
 Chicago Bears | 17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +78 Bears very lucky · −78 Giants
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Giants win 8, Bears win 2.
- 1 NYG 26 CHI 0
- 2 NYG 29 CHI 10
- 3 NYG 18 CHI 3
- 4 NYG 20 CHI 7
- 5 NYG 16 CHI 6
- 6 NYG 20 CHI 13
- 7 NYG 20 CHI 17
- 8 NYG 21 CHI 19
- 9 NYG 14 CHI 17
- 10 NYG 16 CHI 27
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
The Bears won on an off day
They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Giants they would win 64% of the time; with this day’s form, 22%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
42 points apart for the Bears: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Giants offenseEPA per play gained | +0.02 | +0.09 | worse by 0.06 |
| Giants defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.17 | +0.14 | worse by 0.03 |
| Bears offenseEPA per play gained | +0.17 | +0.05 | better by 0.12 |
| Bears defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.02 | +0.06 | better by 0.03 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Giants win 78% of them, Bears 22%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bears by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Giants by 17+ | 24.8% |
| Giants by 9–16 | 23.2% |
| Giants by 1–8 | 26.9% |
| Level after regulation | 4.0% |
| Bears by 1–8 | 13.2% |
| Bears by 9–16 | 6.0% |
| Bears by 17+ | 2.1% |
Where the luck was
Take the luck out
The final margin was Bears by 4. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bears by 6.6.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- C. Santos, 34 yds made · 92% expected
- G. Gano, 57 yds missed · 56% expected
- G. Gano, 39 yds made · 87% expected
- G. Gano, 37 yds made · 89% expected
- C. Santos, 50 yds missed · 66% expected
When it happened
Bears’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 7:38 | The Bears converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +10% CHI | CHI: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 6:19 | The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expectedThe Giants fumbled and the Bears recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +15% CHI | NYG: Punt |
| 3 | Q4 10:12 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Eddie Jackson), 8 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 1165 snaps before, position avg 1 per 237 | +21% NYG | NYG: Field goal |
| 4 | Q4 4:56 | Chop Block on the Bears, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +8% NYG | NYG: End of game |
| 5 | Q4 2:07 | C. Santos missed 50-yard field goalKicks · 66% expected for him, 3 of 6 from 45+ before | +14% NYG | – |
| 6 | Q4 1:55 | The Giants converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +16% NYG | NYG: End of game |
| 7 | Q4 0:45 | The Giants converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +21% NYG | NYG: End of game |
| 8 | Q4 0:04 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Golden Tate), 0 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 656 snaps before, position avg 1 per 385 | +45% CHI | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- David Mayo (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Giants 23% · Bears 77%
- Final margin
- Bears by 4
- Luck in points
- 2.6 for the Giants
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Bears by 6.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Giants 78% · Bears 22% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2020 games · 
Giants · 
Bears
More from Week 2 2020
- Bengals at Browns CLE 35–30 · replay 97% for the winner
- Falcons at Cowboys DAL 40–39 · replay 56% for the winner
- Bills at Dolphins BUF 31–28 · replay 73% for the winner
- Panthers at Buccaneers TB 31–17 · replay 76% for the winner
- Broncos at Steelers PIT 26–21 · replay 64% for the winner
- Lions at Packers GB 42–21 · replay 75% for the winner
- Jaguars at Titans TEN 33–30 · replay 67% for the winner
- Rams at Eagles LA 37–19 · replay 90% for the winner
- Vikings at Colts IND 28–11 · replay 75% for the winner
- 49ers at Jets SF 31–13 · replay 59% for the winner
- Washington at Cardinals ARI 30–15 · replay 76% for the winner
- Ravens at Texans BAL 33–16 · replay 89% for the winner
- Chiefs at Chargers KC 23–20 · replay 40% for the winner
- Patriots at Seahawks SEA 35–30 · replay 56% for the winner
- Saints at Raiders LV 34–24 · replay 19% for the winner