luckadjusted

Week 2 2020 · September 20, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Vikings at Colts, Week 2 2020: who deserved to win?

The Colts beat the Vikings 28–11 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Vikings had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 2.8 points to the Vikings.

Before kickoff the Colts were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 11:46 left): Roughing the Passer on the Colts, 15 yards, worth 12 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

Minnesota Vikings 11
Indianapolis Colts 28

September 20, 2020 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Colts −3.5

Luck index +25 Colts about even · −25 Vikings

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 2, Colts win 8.

  1. 1 MIN 33 IND 21
  2. 2 MIN 27 IND 24
  3. 3 MIN 10 IND 12
  4. 4 MIN 13 IND 17
  5. 5 MIN 13 IND 20
  6. 6 MIN 17 IND 27
  7. 7 MIN 10 IND 23
  8. 8 MIN 14 IND 29
  9. 9 MIN 10 IND 29
  10. 10 MIN 3 IND 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 25% of them, Colts 75%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+2.7%
Vikings by 9–166.5%
Vikings by 1–813.6%
Level after regulation4.1%
Colts by 1–827.8%
Colts by 9–1622.3%
Colts by 17+22.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Colts by 17. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Colts by 15.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Bailey, 21 yds made · 100% expected
  • R. Blankenship, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • R. Blankenship, 38 yds made · 91% expected
  • R. Blankenship, 38 yds made · 91% expected
  • R. Blankenship, 44 yds made · 84% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

As low as 41% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:49 The Vikings converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +5% MIN MIN: Field goal
2 Q1 11:46 Roughing the Passer on the Colts, 15 yardsJudgment calls +12% MIN MIN: Field goal
3 Q1 9:09 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +4% IND MIN: Field goal
4 Q1 5:43 The Colts converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +6% IND IND: Turnover
5 Q1 3:50 The Colts converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +5% IND IND: Turnover
6 Q2 10:18 Offensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Irv Smith Jr.), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 880 snaps before, position avg 1 per 276 +8% IND IND: Punt
7 Q2 3:31 The Colts converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +3% IND IND: Field goal
8 Q2 1:01 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +7% IND MIN: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jack Doyle (IND TE), out · 0.4 pts
  • Danielle Hunter (MIN DE), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Pat Elflein (MIN G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 0% · Colts 100%

Final margin
Colts by 17
Luck in points
1.1 for the Colts
Luck-adjusted margin
Colts by 15.9
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 25% · Colts 75% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2020 games · Vikings · Colts

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