luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 10 2019 · November 10, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Dolphins at Colts, Week 10 2019: who deserved to win?

The Dolphins beat the Colts 16–12, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, the Colts win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 23 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Before kickoff the Colts were 79% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:45 left): the Colts were stopped on 4th & 10, worth 20 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Final

Miami Dolphins 16
Indianapolis Colts 12

November 10, 2019 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Colts −11

Luck index +92 Dolphins very lucky · −92 Colts

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Dolphins win 1, Colts win 9.

  1. 1 MIA 14 IND 9
  2. 2 MIA 24 IND 26
  3. 3 MIA 9 IND 14
  4. 4 MIA 7 IND 15
  5. 5 MIA 6 IND 17
  6. 6 MIA 7 IND 21
  7. 7 MIA 10 IND 27
  8. 8 MIA 6 IND 27
  9. 9 MIA 3 IND 27
  10. 10 MIA 3 IND 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Dolphins win 8% of them, Colts 92%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Dolphins by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Dolphins by 17+0.4%
Dolphins by 9–161.5%
Dolphins by 1–85.7%
Level after regulation1.4%
Colts by 1–817.4%
Colts by 9–1620.5%
Colts by 17+53.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.7 points to the Dolphins: the final margin was Dolphins by 4, without the luck Dolphins by 0.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Sanders, 47 yds made · 76% expected
  • A. Vinatieri, 25 yds made · 97% expected
  • A. Vinatieri, 39 yds made · 90% expected
  • J. Sanders, 48 yds made · 74% expected
  • J. Sanders, 48 yds made · 74% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Dolphins 4 for 30 yards, Colts 3 for 25 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 5:25 Roughing the Passer on the Colts (Ben Banogu), 15 yards +4% MIA +1.2 pts
Q3 14:12 Player Out of Bounds on Kick on the Colts (Ashton Dulin), 5 yards +1% MIA +0.5 pts
Q3 13:30 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins (Durham Smythe), 10 yards +2% IND +1.3 pts
Q3 13:03 Delay of Game on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% IND +0.3 pts
Q3 6:15 Delay of Game on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% IND +0.8 pts
Q3 1:13 False Start on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% IND +0.3 pts
Q4 7:20 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards +7% IND +1.2 pts

Dolphins penalties, every game · Colts penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 73%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Dolphins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:26 The Colts converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +9% IND IND: Turnover
2 Q1 2:59 The Dolphins converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +9% MIA MIA: Turnover on downs
3 Q2 5:32 The Colts were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +8% MIA IND: Turnover
4 Q4 8:24 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +11% MIA MIA: Field goal
5 Q4 5:50 J. Sanders made a 48-yard field goalKicks · 74% expected for him, 2 of 6 from 45+ before +11% MIA MIA: Field goal
6 Q4 2:49 The Colts converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +12% IND IND: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 0:50 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +11% MIA IND: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:45 The Colts were stopped on 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +20% MIA –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jacoby Brissett (IND QB), out, replaced by b.hoyer · 4.0 pts
  • T.Y. Hilton (IND WR), out · 1.2 pts
  • Pierre Desir (IND CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Xavien Howard (MIA CB), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Preston Williams (MIA WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Reshad Jones (MIA FS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Avery Moss (MIA DE), out · 0.2 pts
  • Danny Isidora (MIA G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Dolphins 68% · Colts 32%

Final margin
Dolphins by 4
Luck in points
3.7 for the Dolphins
Luck-adjusted margin
Dolphins by 0.3
Replay with same day's form
Dolphins 8% · Colts 92% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2019 games · Dolphins · Colts

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