luckadjusted

Week 10 2019 · November 10, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Dolphins at Colts, Week 10 2019: who deserved to win?

The Dolphins stole one. They beat the Colts 16–12, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Colts win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 3.8 points to the Dolphins.

Before kickoff the Colts were 79% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:45 left): the Colts were stopped on 4th & 10, worth 36 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Final

Miami Dolphins 16
Indianapolis Colts 12

November 10, 2019 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Colts −11

Luck index +92 Dolphins very lucky · −92 Colts

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Dolphins win 1, Colts win 9.

  1. 1 MIA 16 IND 10
  2. 2 MIA 24 IND 26
  3. 3 MIA 17 IND 22
  4. 4 MIA 27 IND 35
  5. 5 MIA 20 IND 31
  6. 6 MIA 24 IND 38
  7. 7 MIA 0 IND 17
  8. 8 MIA 14 IND 34
  9. 9 MIA 9 IND 34
  10. 10 MIA 3 IND 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Dolphins win 8% of them, Colts 92%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Dolphins by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Dolphins by 17+0.4%
Dolphins by 9–161.6%
Dolphins by 1–85.4%
Level after regulation1.4%
Colts by 1–817.2%
Colts by 9–1620.8%
Colts by 17+53.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Dolphins by 4. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Colts by 1.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Sanders, 47 yds made · 76% expected
  • A. Vinatieri, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • A. Vinatieri, 39 yds made · 89% expected
  • J. Sanders, 48 yds made · 75% expected
  • J. Sanders, 48 yds made · 75% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 73%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Dolphins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:26 The Colts converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +11% IND IND: Turnover
2 Q2 14:54 The Dolphins were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +10% IND MIA: Punt
3 Q2 2:00 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +10% MIA MIA: Touchdown
4 Q4 8:24 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +11% MIA MIA: Field goal
5 Q4 5:50 J. Sanders made 48-yard field goalKicks · 75% expected for him, 2 of 6 from 45+ before +11% MIA MIA: Field goal
6 Q4 2:49 The Colts converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +12% IND IND: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 0:50 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +11% MIA IND: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:45 The Colts were stopped on 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +36% MIA –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jacoby Brissett (IND QB), out, replaced by b.hoyer · 4.0 pts
  • T.Y. Hilton (IND WR), out · 1.2 pts
  • Pierre Desir (IND CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Xavien Howard (MIA CB), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Preston Williams (MIA WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Reshad Jones (MIA FS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Avery Moss (MIA DE), out · 0.2 pts
  • Danny Isidora (MIA G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Dolphins 64% · Colts 36%

Final margin
Dolphins by 4
Luck in points
5.1 for the Dolphins
Luck-adjusted margin
Colts by 1.1
Replay with same day's form
Dolphins 8% · Colts 92% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2019 games · Dolphins · Colts

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