luckadjusted

Week 10 2019 · November 10, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Chiefs at Titans, Week 10 2019: who deserved to win?

The Titans beat the Chiefs 35–32, but the Chiefs played well enough to win it: they take 6 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 6.9 points to the Titans.

Before kickoff the Chiefs were 64% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 6:28 left): Return touchdown by the Titans, worth 46 points of win probability to the Titans.

Final

Kansas City Chiefs 32
Tennessee Titans 35

November 10, 2019 · Nissan Stadium · Closing line: Chiefs −5

Luck index +64 Titans very lucky · −64 Chiefs

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chiefs win 6, Titans win 4.

  1. 1 KC 40 TEN 14
  2. 2 KC 41 TEN 23
  3. 3 KC 34 TEN 20
  4. 4 KC 41 TEN 31
  5. 5 KC 29 TEN 24
  6. 6 KC 28 TEN 26
  7. 7 KC 12 TEN 14
  8. 8 KC 34 TEN 41
  9. 9 KC 19 TEN 31
  10. 10 KC 10 TEN 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chiefs win 64% of them, Titans 36%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chiefs by 17+19.9%
Chiefs by 9–1619.0%
Chiefs by 1–823.5%
Level after regulation2.4%
Titans by 1–818.3%
Titans by 9–1610.6%
Titans by 17+6.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Titans by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Titans by 0.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • H. Butker, 30 yds made · 96% expected
  • H. Butker, 41 yds made · 85% expected
  • H. Butker, 43 yds made · 82% expected
  • H. Butker, 39 yds made · 88% expected
  • H. Butker, 52 yds blocked · 66% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Titans’ chance of winning

As low as 3% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Titans were ahead in it, below while the Chiefs were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:58 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expectedThe Titans fumbled and the Chiefs recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +19% KC TEN: Punt
2 Q2 6:28 The Chiefs fumbled and the Titans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the TitansSpecial teams +46% TEN KC: Field goal
3 Q2 3:45 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +13% KC KC: Field goal
4 Q3 3:25 The Chiefs converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +13% KC KC: Field goal
5 Q4 12:05 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +21% KC KC: Touchdown
6 Q4 1:27 The Chiefs were stopped on 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedThe Chiefs fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Intentional Grounding on the Chiefs (Dustin Colquitt), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 80 snaps before, position avg 1 per 885 +16% TEN KC: Missed field goal
7 Q4 0:23 The Titans’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +12% TEN –
8 Q4 0:03 H. Butker had a 52-yard field goal blockedKicks · 66% expected for him, 3 of 5 from 45+ before +31% TEN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Corey Davis (TEN WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Jurrell Casey (TEN DT), out · 0.7 pts
  • Malcolm Butler (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Jayon Brown (TEN LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Kendall Fuller (KC CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Alex Okafor (KC DE), out · 0.4 pts
  • Laurent Duvernay-Tardif (KC G), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chiefs 54% · Titans 46%

Final margin
Titans by 3
Luck in points
2.5 for the Titans
Luck-adjusted margin
Titans by 0.5
Replay with same day's form
Chiefs 64% · Titans 36% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2019 games · Chiefs · Titans

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