Chargers unlucky 24 
Raiders lucky 26 Replays favor loser · Raiders win 38% of replays 2019 NFL season · November 7, 2019–November 11
Week 10 2019: who deserved to win
5 of 13 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest heist: the Raiders beat the Chargers 26–24 in a game they win 38% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.
The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.
Chargers unlucky 24 Raiders lucky 26 Replays favor loser · Raiders win 38% of replays 
Cardinals 27 
Buccaneers 30 Coin flip · Buccaneers win 55% of replays 
Falcons 26 
Saints 9 Coin flip · Falcons win 47% of replays 
Ravens 49 
Bengals 13 Replays agree · Ravens win 100% of replays 
Bills 16 
Browns 19 Replays agree · Browns win 80% of replays 
Lions unlucky 13 
Bears lucky 20 Long shot · Bears win 14% of replays The Bears won on an off day 69% to win a fresh game, 14% with this day’s form: far below what the matchup promised. 
Chiefs unlucky 32 
Titans lucky 35 Replays favor loser · Titans win 37% of replays 
Giants 27 
Jets 34 Replays agree · Jets win 77% of replays 
Dolphins lucky 16 
Colts unlucky 12 Long shot · Dolphins win 8% of replays 
Panthers 16 
Packers 24 Replays agree · Packers win 86% of replays 
Rams unlucky 12 
Steelers lucky 17 Replays favor loser · Steelers win 22% of replays 
Vikings 28 
Cowboys 24 Coin flip · Vikings win 40% of replays 
Seahawks 27 
49ers 24 Coin flip · Seahawks win 47% of replays Week 10 2019 upsets
Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 1 of 8 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.
| Winner | Game | Before kickoff | Replay with same day’s form | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons | 26–9 @ Saints | 15% | 47% | Coin flip |
| Dolphins | 16–12 @ Colts | 21% | 8% | Lucky |
| Seahawks | 27–24 @ 49ers | 32% | 47% | Coin flip |
| Titans | 35–32 vs Chiefs | 36% | 37% | Lucky |
| Steelers | 17–12 vs Rams | 38% | 22% | Lucky |
| Vikings | 28–24 @ Cowboys | 40% | 40% | Coin flip |
| Jets | 34–27 vs Giants | 41% | 77% | Deserved |
| Raiders | 26–24 vs Chargers | 47% | 38% | Lucky |
Week 10 luck ranking
Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.
| # | Team | Game | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dolphins | W 16–12 @ Colts | 8% | +92 |
| 2 | Bears | W 20–13 vs Lions | 14% | +86 |
| 3 | Steelers | W 17–12 vs Rams | 22% | +78 |
| 4 | Titans | W 35–32 vs Chiefs | 37% | +63 |
| 5 | Raiders | W 26–24 vs Chargers | 38% | +62 |
| 6 | Vikings | W 28–24 @ Cowboys | 40% | +60 |
| 7 | Falcons | W 26–9 @ Saints | 47% | +53 |
| 8 | Seahawks | W 27–24 @ 49ers | 47% | +53 |
| 9 | Buccaneers | W 30–27 vs Cardinals | 55% | +45 |
| 10 | Jets | W 34–27 vs Giants | 77% | +23 |
| 11 | Browns | W 19–16 vs Bills | 80% | +20 |
| 12 | Packers | W 24–16 vs Panthers | 86% | +14 |
| 13 | Ravens | W 49–13 @ Bengals | 100% | 0 |
| 14 | Bengals | L 13–49 vs Ravens | 0% | 0 |
| 15 | Panthers | L 16–24 @ Packers | 14% | −14 |
| 16 | Bills | L 16–19 @ Browns | 20% | −20 |
| 17 | Giants | L 27–34 @ Jets | 23% | −23 |
| 18 | Cardinals | L 27–30 @ Buccaneers | 45% | −45 |
| 19 | 49ers | L 24–27 vs Seahawks | 53% | −53 |
| 20 | Saints | L 9–26 vs Falcons | 53% | −53 |
| 21 | Cowboys | L 24–28 vs Vikings | 60% | −60 |
| 22 | Chargers | L 24–26 @ Raiders | 62% | −62 |
| 23 | Chiefs | L 32–35 @ Titans | 63% | −63 |
| 24 | Rams | L 12–17 @ Steelers | 78% | −78 |
| 25 | Lions | L 13–20 @ Bears | 86% | −86 |
| 26 | Colts | L 12–16 vs Dolphins | 92% | −92 |