2019 season · final

Carolina Panthers, 2019: game by game

The Panthers went 5–11 in 2019; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 4.1 wins. Luck added 0.9: the 13th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 2–6.

Every game

How often the Panthers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Rams	L 27–30	9%	−9
Week 2	vs Buccaneers	L 14–20	23%	−23
Week 3	@ Cardinals	W 38–20	89%	+11
Week 4	@ Texans	W 16–10	22%	+78
Week 5	vs Jaguars	W 34–27	41%	+59
Week 6	@ Buccaneers	W 37–26	50%	+50
Week 8	@ 49ers	L 13–51	2%	−2
Week 9	vs Titans	W 30–20	45%	+55
Week 10	@ Packers	L 16–24	13%	−13
Week 11	vs Falcons	L 3–29	24%	−24
Week 12	@ Saints	L 31–34	15%	−15
Week 13	vs Washington	L 21–29	31%	−31
Week 14	@ Falcons	L 20–40	8%	−8
Week 15	vs Seahawks	L 24–30	21%	−21
Week 16	@ Colts	L 6–38	7%	−7
Week 17	vs Saints	L 10–42	5%	−5

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −9 vs LA

Wk 2 −23 vs TB

Wk 3 +11 @ ARI

Wk 4 +78 @ HOU

Wk 5 +59 vs JAX

Wk 6 +50 @ TB

Wk 8 −2 @ SF

Wk 9 +55 vs TEN

Wk 10 −13 @ GB

Wk 11 −24 vs ATL

Wk 12 −15 @ NO

Wk 13 −31 vs WAS

Wk 14 −8 @ ATL

Wk 15 −21 vs SEA

Wk 16 −7 @ IND

Wk 17 −5 vs NO

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Panthers’ favor.

Kind	Points	Per game
Judgment calls	+13.4	+0.84
Kicks	+7.4	+0.46
Rest	+1.6	+0.10
Injuries	−4.7	−0.29
3rd & 4th downs	−6.1	−0.38
Fumble bounces	−7.9	−0.49