2019 season · final

Carolina Panthers, 2019: game by game

The Panthers went 5–11 in 2019; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 4.0 wins. Luck added 1.0: the 13th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 2–6.

Every game

How often the Panthers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Rams	L 27–30	8%	−8
Week 2	vs Buccaneers	L 14–20	21%	−21
Week 3	@ Cardinals	W 38–20	89%	+11
Week 4	@ Texans	W 16–10	19%	+81
Week 5	vs Jaguars	W 34–27	44%	+56
Week 6	vs Buccaneers	W 37–26	44%	+56
Week 8	@ 49ers	L 13–51	1%	−1
Week 9	vs Titans	W 30–20	46%	+54
Week 10	@ Packers	L 16–24	14%	−14
Week 11	vs Falcons	L 3–29	23%	−23
Week 12	@ Saints	L 31–34	17%	−17
Week 13	vs Washington	L 21–29	30%	−30
Week 14	@ Falcons	L 20–40	8%	−8
Week 15	vs Seahawks	L 24–30	20%	−20
Week 16	@ Colts	L 6–38	7%	−7
Week 17	vs Saints	L 10–42	6%	−6

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −8 vs LA

Wk 2 −21 vs TB

Wk 3 +11 @ ARI

Wk 4 +81 @ HOU

Wk 5 +56 vs JAX

Wk 6 +56 @ TB

Wk 8 −1 @ SF

Wk 9 +54 vs TEN

Wk 10 −14 @ GB

Wk 11 −23 vs ATL

Wk 12 −17 @ NO

Wk 13 −30 vs WAS

Wk 14 −8 @ ATL

Wk 15 −20 vs SEA

Wk 16 −7 @ IND

Wk 17 −6 vs NO

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Panthers’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Judgment calls	+0.56	+6.9
Kicks	+0.28	+7.8
Rest	+0.04	+1.6
Injuries	−0.10	−3.5
3rd & 4th downs	−0.20	−4.9
Fumble bounces	−0.38	−11.1