luckadjusted

Week 1 2019 · September 8, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Rams at Panthers, Week 1 2019: who deserved to win?

The Rams beat the Panthers 30–27, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Rams win 9 of 10.

An off day for the Panthers: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Rams they would win 45% of the time; with this day’s form, 9%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Rams were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 13:45 left): Blocked punt by the Panthers, worth 14 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Final

Los Angeles Rams 30
Carolina Panthers 27

September 8, 2019 · Bank of America Stadium · Closing line: Rams −1.5

Luck index +9 Rams about even · −9 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Rams win 9, Panthers win 1.

  1. 1 LA 48 CAR 13
  2. 2 LA 49 CAR 22
  3. 3 LA 33 CAR 10
  4. 4 LA 29 CAR 10
  5. 5 LA 33 CAR 17
  6. 6 LA 22 CAR 9
  7. 7 LA 30 CAR 20
  8. 8 LA 29 CAR 23
  9. 9 LA 33 CAR 30
  10. 10 LA 17 CAR 25

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Panthers

They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Rams they would win 45% of the time; with this day’s form, 9%.

35 points apart for the Panthers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Rams offenseEPA per play gained +0.11 +0.18 worse by 0.07
Rams defenseEPA per play allowed +0.11 +0.14 better by 0.02
Panthers offenseEPA per play gained +0.11 +0.15 worse by 0.04
Panthers defenseEPA per play allowed +0.11 +0.14 better by 0.03

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Rams win 91% of them, Panthers 9%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Rams by 17+56.2%
Rams by 9–1619.1%
Rams by 1–815.1%
Level after regulation0.8%
Panthers by 1–85.8%
Panthers by 9–162.2%
Panthers by 17+0.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Rams by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Panthers by 0.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Slye, 53 yds missed · 68% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 49 yds made · 75% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 56 yds made · 64% expected
  • J. Slye, 46 yds made · 79% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 27 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Slye, 52 yds made · 69% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 41 yds missed · 87% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 63%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Rams were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:30 The Panthers converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +7% CAR CAR: Turnover
2 Q1 8:55 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +7% CAR LA: Punt
3 Q1 1:30 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 23% expectedDelay of Game on the Panthers, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +7% LA CAR: Missed field goal
4 Q1 0:16 The Rams converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +12% LA LA: Field goal
5 Q2 13:15 The Panthers fumbled and the Rams recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% LA CAR: Punt
6 Q3 6:22 The Rams converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +6% LA LA: Touchdown
7 Q4 14:18 Offensive Holding on the Rams, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% CAR CAR: Touchdown
8 Q4 13:45 Blocked punt by the PanthersSpecial teams +14% CAR CAR: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Graham Gano (CAR K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Rams 46% · Panthers 54%

Final margin
Rams by 3
Luck in points
3.9 for the Rams
Luck-adjusted margin
Panthers by 0.9
Replay with same day's form
Rams 91% · Panthers 9% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2019 games · Rams · Panthers

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