luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 1 2019 · September 8, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Giants at Cowboys, Week 1 2019: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Giants 35–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Cowboys win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 0:30 left): the Giants were stopped on 3rd & 1, worth 8 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Final

New York Giants 17
Dallas Cowboys 35

September 8, 2019 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −7

Luck index +8 Cowboys about even · −8 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 1, Cowboys win 9.

  1. 1 NYG 21 DAL 15
  2. 2 NYG 24 DAL 27
  3. 3 NYG 17 DAL 23
  4. 4 NYG 24 DAL 31
  5. 5 NYG 31 DAL 42
  6. 6 NYG 14 DAL 27
  7. 7 NYG 13 DAL 30
  8. 8 NYG 14 DAL 34
  9. 9 NYG 21 DAL 45
  10. 10 NYG 14 DAL 46

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 8% of them, Cowboys 92%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 18.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+0.6%
Giants by 9–161.8%
Giants by 1–85.6%
Level after regulation2.0%
Cowboys by 1–816.4%
Cowboys by 9–1622.6%
Cowboys by 17+51.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.0 points to the Cowboys: the final margin was Cowboys by 18, without the luck Cowboys by 12. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Giants 8 for 70 yards, Cowboys 6 for 47 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:44 Unnecessary Roughness on the Cowboys (Maliek Collins), 2 yards +2% NYG +0.6 pts
Q1 4:10 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards +2% NYG +0.9 pts
Q1 0:30 Intentional Grounding on the Giants (Eli Manning), 10 yards +3% DAL +0.9 pts
Q2 11:57 Tripping on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% NYG +2.0 pts
Q2 8:55 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DAL +0.7 pts
Q2 5:46 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys (Ezekiel Elliott), 10 yards +1% NYG +1.1 pts
Q2 5:42 Defensive Holding on the Giants, 5 yards, wiping out the play 0% DAL +0.5 pts
Q2 4:10 Illegal Shift on the Cowboys (Amari Cooper), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +5% NYG +2.1 pts
Q2 2:25 Defensive Offside on the Giants (Markus Golden), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DAL +0.9 pts
Q3 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards +2% DAL +0.9 pts
Q3 0:07 Offensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Cody Latimer), 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% DAL +1.8 pts
Q4 13:49 Fair Catch Interference on the Giants (Cody Core), 15 yards 0% DAL +1.4 pts
Q4 9:39 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards 0% DAL +1.3 pts
Q4 7:15 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% NYG +2.6 pts

Giants penalties, every game · Cowboys penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

As low as 32% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:26 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +4% NYG DAL: Punt
2 Q1 12:13 The Giants fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% NYG NYG: Touchdown
3 Q1 7:29 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +4% DAL DAL: Touchdown
4 Q1 6:08 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +4% DAL DAL: Touchdown
5 Q1 0:30 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expectedIntentional Grounding on the Giants (Eli Manning), 10 yardsJudgment calls · no snap history yet +8% DAL NYG: Punt
6 Q2 11:57 Tripping on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% NYG NYG: Punt
7 Q2 10:54 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +7% DAL DAL: Touchdown
8 Q2 4:10 Illegal Shift on the Cowboys (Amari Cooper), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · no snap history yet +5% NYG NYG: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Chad Wheeler (NYG T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 0% · Cowboys 100%

Final margin
Cowboys by 18
Luck in points
6.0 for the Cowboys
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 12.0
Replay with same day's form
Giants 8% · Cowboys 92% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2019 games · Giants · Cowboys

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