luckadjusted

Week 1 2019 · September 8, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Titans at Browns, Week 1 2019: who deserved to win?

The Titans beat the Browns 43–13, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Titans win 9 of 10.

An off day for the Browns: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Titans they would win 62% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Browns were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:21 left): Offensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Odell Beckham Jr.), 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 10 points of win probability to the Titans.

Final

Tennessee Titans 43
Cleveland Browns 13

September 8, 2019 · FirstEnergy Stadium · Closing line: Browns −5.5

Luck index +13 Titans about even · −13 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 9, Browns win 1.

  1. 1 TEN 45 CLE 10
  2. 2 TEN 44 CLE 17
  3. 3 TEN 44 CLE 23
  4. 4 TEN 27 CLE 10
  5. 5 TEN 27 CLE 13
  6. 6 TEN 32 CLE 21
  7. 7 TEN 34 CLE 27
  8. 8 TEN 20 CLE 15
  9. 9 TEN 19 CLE 17
  10. 10 TEN 20 CLE 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Browns

They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Titans they would win 62% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%.

49 points apart for the Browns: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Titans offenseEPA per play gained +0.15 +0.10 better by 0.05
Titans defenseEPA per play allowed +0.11 +0.10 worse by 0.01
Browns offenseEPA per play gained +0.11 +0.10 better by 0.01
Browns defenseEPA per play allowed +0.15 +0.12 worse by 0.03

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 87% of them, Browns 13%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 30.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+49.1%
Titans by 9–1619.3%
Titans by 1–817.1%
Level after regulation1.4%
Browns by 1–87.6%
Browns by 9–164.0%
Browns by 17+1.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Titans by 30. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Titans by 9.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Santos, 37 yds made · 90% expected
  • C. Santos, 53 yds made · 64% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Browns’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 70%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Browns were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:17 Illegal Blindside Block on the Browns, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% TEN TEN: Field goal
2 Q1 4:23 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +7% TEN CLE: Punt
3 Q2 13:11 Defensive Holding on the Browns (Denzel Ward), 5 yardsJudgment calls · no snap history yet +7% TEN TEN: Touchdown
4 Q2 10:18 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Browns (Sheldon Richardson), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · no snap history yet +4% TEN TEN: Touchdown
5 Q2 5:03 Disqualification on the Browns, 15 yardsJudgment calls +4% TEN TEN: Punt
6 Q2 0:21 Offensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Odell Beckham Jr.), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · no snap history yet +10% TEN TEN: Field goal
7 Q3 5:52 Offensive Holding on the Browns (Demetrius Harris), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · no snap history yetFalse Start on the Browns, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +6% TEN TEN: Touchdown
8 Q3 4:12 The Browns converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 18% expected +8% CLE CLE: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Ryan Succop (TEN K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 88% · Browns 12%

Final margin
Titans by 30
Luck in points
21.0 for the Titans
Luck-adjusted margin
Titans by 9.0
Replay with same day's form
Titans 87% · Browns 13% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2019 games · Titans · Browns

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