luckadjusted

Week 1 2019 · September 8, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Lions at Cardinals, Week 1 2019: who deserved to win?

The Cardinals and the Lions tied 27–27. Replayed with the way both teams played, the Cardinals win 3 of 10.

Before kickoff the Lions were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (QOT, 0:05 left): the Lions were stopped on 4th & 24, worth 47 points of win probability to the Lions.

Final (OT)

Detroit Lions 27
Arizona Cardinals 27

September 8, 2019 · State Farm Stadium · Closing line: Lions −2.5

Luck index +20 Cardinals about even · −20 Lions

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lions win 7, Cardinals win 3.

  1. 1 DET 39 ARI 9
  2. 2 DET 34 ARI 13
  3. 3 DET 30 ARI 14
  4. 4 DET 24 ARI 10
  5. 5 DET 33 ARI 24
  6. 6 DET 38 ARI 33
  7. 7 DET 38 ARI 36
  8. 8 DET 23 ARI 26
  9. 9 DET 13 ARI 23
  10. 10 DET 14 ARI 36

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Lions win 70% of them, Cardinals 30%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Tie.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lions by 17+28.3%
Lions by 9–1618.0%
Lions by 1–821.9%
Level after regulation2.9%
Cardinals by 1–813.6%
Cardinals by 9–169.3%
Cardinals by 17+6.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was even. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Lions by 9.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Prater, 55 yds made · 67% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 20 yds made · 99% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 42 yds made · 86% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 34 yds made · 94% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 28 yds made · 98% expected
  • M. Prater, 33 yds made · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Cardinals’ chance of winning

As low as 1% and as high as 99%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cardinals were ahead in it, below while the Lions were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:00 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 18% expected +10% DET ARI: Punt
2 Q4 0:43 The Cardinals’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +21% ARI ARI: Field goal
3 QOT 7:21 Z. Gonzalez made 28-yard field goalKicks · 98% expected for him +37% DET ARI: Punt
4 QOT 3:52 M. Prater made 33-yard field goalKicks · 95% expected for him +24% ARI DET: Turnover on downs
5 QOT 3:08 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +11% ARI ARI: Punt
6 QOT 2:00 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +18% ARI ARI: Punt
7 QOT 1:13 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +22% DET ARI: Punt
8 QOT 0:05 The Lions were stopped on 4th & 243rd & 4th downs · 14% expectedDelay of Game on the Lions, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +47% DET –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jarrad Davis (DET LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Da'Shawn Hand (DET DE), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lions 91% · Cardinals 9%

Final margin
even
Luck in points
9.0 for the Cardinals
Luck-adjusted margin
Lions by 9.0
Replay with same day's form
Lions 70% · Cardinals 30% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2019 games · Lions · Cardinals

More from Week 1 2019