luckadjusted

Week 1 2019 · September 8, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Ravens at Dolphins, Week 1 2019: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Dolphins 59–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 70% favorites.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 59
Miami Dolphins 10

September 8, 2019 · Hard Rock Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −7

Luck index 0 Ravens about even · 0 Dolphins

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 10, Dolphins win 0.

  1. 1 BAL 65 MIA 20
  2. 2 BAL 48 MIA 10
  3. 3 BAL 48 MIA 16
  4. 4 BAL 36 MIA 6
  5. 5 BAL 47 MIA 20
  6. 6 BAL 44 MIA 20
  7. 7 BAL 24 MIA 3
  8. 8 BAL 38 MIA 20
  9. 9 BAL 31 MIA 17
  10. 10 BAL 35 MIA 28

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 100% of them, Dolphins 0%. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 49.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+90.7%
Ravens by 9–166.7%
Ravens by 1–82.2%
Level after regulation0.1%
Dolphins by 1–80.3%
Dolphins by 9–160.0%
Dolphins by 17+0.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Ravens by 49. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Ravens by 43.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Sanders, 54 yds made · 64% expected
  • J. Tucker, 34 yds made · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Dolphins’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Dolphins were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:38 The Ravens converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +2% BAL BAL: Touchdown
2 Q1 6:31 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 18% expected +1% BAL MIA: Punt
3 Q1 4:28 The Ravens converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +7% BAL BAL: Touchdown
4 Q1 2:29 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +2% BAL MIA: Punt
5 Q2 15:00 Defensive Holding on the Dolphins (Eric Rowe), 5 yardsJudgment calls · no snap history yet +0% BAL BAL: Touchdown
6 Q2 14:54 Defensive Holding on the Dolphins (Avery Moss), 5 yardsJudgment calls · no snap history yet +0% BAL BAL: Touchdown
7 Q3 7:04 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +1% BAL BAL: Field goal
8 Q3 4:27 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +0% MIA MIA: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tavon Young (BAL CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 100% · Dolphins 0%

Final margin
Ravens by 49
Luck in points
5.1 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 43.9
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 100% · Dolphins 0% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2019 games · Ravens · Dolphins

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