luckadjusted

Week 1 2019 · September 8, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Bills at Jets, Week 1 2019: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Jets 17–16, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 9 of 10. The Jets had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 1.6 points to the Jets.

An off day for the Jets: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Bills they would win 58% of the time; with this day’s form, 11%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Jets were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 3:07 left): the Bills converted 3rd & 4, worth 27 points of win probability to the Bills.

Final

Buffalo Bills 17
New York Jets 16

September 8, 2019 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Jets −2.5

Luck index +11 Bills about even · −11 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bills win 9, Jets win 1.

  1. 1 BUF 38 NYJ 6
  2. 2 BUF 31 NYJ 7
  3. 3 BUF 43 NYJ 24
  4. 4 BUF 23 NYJ 7
  5. 5 BUF 19 NYJ 6
  6. 6 BUF 24 NYJ 13
  7. 7 BUF 14 NYJ 6
  8. 8 BUF 17 NYJ 12
  9. 9 BUF 16 NYJ 14
  10. 10 BUF 17 NYJ 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Jets

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Bills they would win 58% of the time; with this day’s form, 11%.

47 points apart for the Jets: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Bills offenseEPA per play gained +0.21 +0.05 better by 0.16
Bills defenseEPA per play allowed −0.10 +0.09 better by 0.19
Jets offenseEPA per play gained −0.10 +0.07 worse by 0.16
Jets defenseEPA per play allowed +0.21 +0.13 worse by 0.08

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bills win 89% of them, Jets 11%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bills by 17+45.0%
Bills by 9–1623.6%
Bills by 1–818.7%
Level after regulation1.8%
Jets by 1–87.6%
Jets by 9–162.3%
Jets by 17+0.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Bills by 1. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Jets by 11.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Vedvik, 45 yds missed · 80% expected
  • S. Hauschka, 43 yds made · 83% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 96%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Bills were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:11 The Bills fumbled and the Jets recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% NYJ BUF: Opp touchdown
2 Q1 10:42 Return touchdown by the JetsSpecial teams +17% NYJ NYJ: Opp touchdown
3 Q1 0:49 Defensive Holding on the Jets (Darryl Roberts), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · no snap history yet +11% BUF BUF: Punt
4 Q2 3:55 The Bills were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expectedThe Bills fumbled and the Jets recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% NYJ BUF: Turnover
5 Q4 3:07 The Bills converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +27% BUF BUF: Touchdown
6 Q4 2:00 The Jets converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +10% NYJ NYJ: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 1:17 The Jets were stopped on 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +25% BUF NYJ: Turnover
8 Q4 0:08 The Jets fumbled and the Bills recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +14% BUF –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Avery Williamson (NYJ LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bills 9% · Jets 91%

Final margin
Bills by 1
Luck in points
12.2 for the Bills
Luck-adjusted margin
Jets by 11.2
Replay with same day's form
Bills 89% · Jets 11% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2019 games · Bills · Jets

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