2019 season · final

New York Giants, 2019: game by game

The Giants went 4–12 in 2019; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 6.5 wins. Luck cost them 2.5: the 5th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 2–5.

Every game

How often the Giants win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Cowboys	L 17–35	8%	−8
Week 2	vs Bills	L 14–28	48%	−48
Week 3	@ Buccaneers	W 32–31	19%	+81
Week 4	vs Washington	W 24–3	73%	+27
Week 5	vs Vikings	L 10–28	52%	−52
Week 6	@ Patriots	L 14–35	41%	−41
Week 7	vs Cardinals	L 21–27	15%	−15
Week 8	@ Lions	L 26–31	51%	−51
Week 9	vs Cowboys	L 18–37	4%	−4
Week 10	@ Jets	L 27–34	23%	−23
Week 12	@ Bears	L 14–19	39%	−39
Week 13	vs Packers	L 13–31	47%	−47
Week 14	@ Eagles	L 17–23	11%	−11
Week 15	vs Dolphins	W 36–20	94%	+6
Week 16	@ Washington	W 41–35	84%	+17
Week 17	vs Eagles	L 17–34	40%	−40

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −8 @ DAL

Wk 2 −48 vs BUF

Wk 3 +81 @ TB

Wk 4 +27 vs WAS

Wk 5 −52 vs MIN

Wk 6 −41 @ NE

Wk 7 −15 vs ARI

Wk 8 −51 @ DET

Wk 9 −4 vs DAL

Wk 10 −23 @ NYJ

Wk 12 −39 @ CHI

Wk 13 −47 vs GB

Wk 14 −11 @ PHI

Wk 15 +6 vs MIA

Wk 16 +17 @ WAS

Wk 17 −40 vs PHI

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Giants’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Judgment calls	+0.24	+7.3
Injuries	+0.06	+1.3
Kicks	+0.04	−10.5
Fumble bounces	−0.08	−1.3
3rd & 4th downs	−0.12	−1.7