luckadjusted

Week 16 2019 · December 22, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Giants at Washington, Week 16 2019: who deserved to win?

The Giants beat Washington 41–35, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Giants win 8 of 10. Washington had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 3.0 points to Washington.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (QOT, 9:07 left): the Giants converted 3rd & 7, worth 27 points of win probability to the Giants.

Final (OT)

New York Giants 41
Washington Redskins 35

December 22, 2019 · FedExField · Closing line: Giants −1

Luck index +16 Giants about even · −16 Washington

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 8, Washington win 2.

  1. 1 NYG 52 WAS 20
  2. 2 NYG 33 WAS 10
  3. 3 NYG 38 WAS 20
  4. 4 NYG 41 WAS 26
  5. 5 NYG 20 WAS 9
  6. 6 NYG 33 WAS 25
  7. 7 NYG 31 WAS 27
  8. 8 NYG 24 WAS 23
  9. 9 NYG 34 WAS 37
  10. 10 NYG 23 WAS 36

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 84% of them, Washington 16%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Giants by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+41.7%
Giants by 9–1621.8%
Giants by 1–819.9%
Level after regulation1.8%
Washington by 1–89.5%
Washington by 9–163.8%
Washington by 17+1.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Giants by 6. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Giants by 5.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

When it happened

Washington’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 61%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Washington were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:44 Washington converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +8% WAS WAS: Touchdown
2 Q4 14:44 Blocked punt by WashingtonSpecial teams +9% WAS WAS: Touchdown
3 Q4 5:10 Washington converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +10% WAS WAS: Touchdown
4 Q4 0:44 Washington were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +9% NYG WAS: Touchdown
5 Q4 0:41 Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Corey Ballentine), 2 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 372 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +15% WAS WAS: Touchdown
6 Q4 0:10 The Giants converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +15% NYG NYG: End of game
7 QOT 9:07 The Giants converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +27% NYG NYG: Touchdown
8 QOT 4:19 The Giants converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +10% NYG –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Quinton Dunbar (WAS CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Brandon Scherff (WAS G), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Ryan Kerrigan (WAS LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Fabian Moreau (WAS CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Paul Richardson (WAS WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Trey Quinn (WAS WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jimmy Moreland (WAS CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Evan Engram (NYG TE), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Jabrill Peppers (NYG SS), out (IR) · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 83% · Washington 17%

Final margin
Giants by 6
Luck in points
0.6 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Giants by 5.4
Replay with same day's form
Giants 84% · Washington 16% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2019 games · Giants · Washington

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