luckadjusted

Week 4 2019 · September 29, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Panthers at Texans, Week 4 2019: who deserved to win?

The Panthers beat the Texans 16–10, but the Texans played well enough to win it: they take 8 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 5.3 points to the Panthers.

Before kickoff the Texans were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 12:20 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Lonnie Johnson Jr.), 36 yards, worth 13 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Final

Carolina Panthers 16
Houston Texans 10

September 29, 2019 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Texans −5.5

Luck index +78 Panthers very lucky · −78 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 2, Texans win 8.

  1. 1 CAR 23 HOU 9
  2. 2 CAR 27 HOU 24
  3. 3 CAR 26 HOU 28
  4. 4 CAR 23 HOU 27
  5. 5 CAR 30 HOU 37
  6. 6 CAR 16 HOU 26
  7. 7 CAR 10 HOU 24
  8. 8 CAR 21 HOU 38
  9. 9 CAR 17 HOU 40
  10. 10 CAR 21 HOU 50

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 22% of them, Texans 78%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Panthers by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+2.8%
Panthers by 9–166.6%
Panthers by 1–812.2%
Level after regulation2.0%
Texans by 1–825.4%
Texans by 9–1619.7%
Texans by 17+31.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Panthers by 6. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Panthers by 1.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Slye, 48 yds made · 78% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 52 yds missed · 70% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 37 yds made · 92% expected
  • J. Slye, 55 yds made · 68% expected
  • J. Slye, 26 yds made · 99% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 71%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:20 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Lonnie Johnson Jr.), 36 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 132 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +13% CAR CAR: Turnover
2 Q2 13:40 K. Fairbairn missed 52-yard field goalKicks · 70% expected for him, 0 of 1 from 45+ before +9% CAR HOU: Field goal
3 Q2 5:31 The Panthers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +11% CAR CAR: Turnover
4 Q2 4:27 The Panthers fumbled and the Texans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% HOU CAR: Touchdown
5 Q2 1:57 The Panthers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +11% CAR CAR: Touchdown
6 Q4 14:55 J. Slye made 55-yard field goalKicks · 68% expected for him, 5 of 6 from 45+ before +12% CAR CAR: Punt
7 Q4 13:34 Illegal Shift on the Texans, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +9% CAR CAR: Punt
8 Q4 4:11 The Texans fumbled and the Panthers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% CAR HOU: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Lamar Miller (HOU RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Senio Kelemete (HOU G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Seantrel Henderson (HOU T), out · 0.2 pts
  • Donte Jackson (CAR CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Kawann Short (CAR DE), out · 0.6 pts
  • Trai Turner (CAR G), out · 0.5 pts
  • Kawann Short (CAR DT), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 48% · Texans 52%

Final margin
Panthers by 6
Luck in points
4.7 for the Panthers
Luck-adjusted margin
Panthers by 1.3
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 22% · Texans 78% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2019 games · Panthers · Texans

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