luckadjusted

Week 4 2019 · September 29, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Buccaneers at Rams, Week 4 2019: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Rams 55–40, but the Rams played well enough to win it: they take 6 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 3.3 points to the Buccaneers.

Before kickoff the Rams were 75% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 8:25 left): the Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 9, worth 34 points of win probability to the Rams.

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 55
Los Angeles Rams 40

September 29, 2019 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · Closing line: Rams −9

Luck index +64 Buccaneers very lucky · −64 Rams

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 4, Rams win 6.

  1. 1 TB 44 LA 27
  2. 2 TB 26 LA 16
  3. 3 TB 27 LA 20
  4. 4 TB 24 LA 21
  5. 5 TB 22 LA 24
  6. 6 TB 26 LA 31
  7. 7 TB 17 LA 26
  8. 8 TB 20 LA 33
  9. 9 TB 12 LA 29
  10. 10 TB 20 LA 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 36% of them, Rams 64%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 15.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+6.8%
Buccaneers by 9–1610.5%
Buccaneers by 1–817.8%
Level after regulation2.1%
Rams by 1–825.6%
Rams by 9–1618.5%
Rams by 17+18.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Buccaneers by 15. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Buccaneers by 12.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Zuerlein, 58 yds made · 61% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 44 yds made · 83% expected
  • M. Gay, 58 yds made · 61% expected
  • M. Gay, 21 yds made · 99% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Rams’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Rams were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:00 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +7% TB TB: Touchdown
2 Q2 13:39 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expectedUnnecessary Roughness on the Rams (Robert Woods), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 201 snaps before, position avg 1 per 331 +17% TB LA: Turnover
3 Q2 5:34 Illegal Shift on the Buccaneers (Chris Godwin), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 0 flags in 193 snaps before, position avg 1 per 331 +6% LA LA: Touchdown
4 Q3 13:41 The Rams converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +7% LA LA: Field goal
5 Q3 10:00 Unnecessary Roughness on the Buccaneers (Rakeem Nunez-Roches), 14 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 51 snaps before, position avg 1 per 242 +10% LA LA: Field goal
6 Q4 8:25 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedReturn touchdown by the RamsSpecial teams +34% LA TB: Field goal
7 Q4 6:46 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +6% TB TB: Field goal
8 Q4 1:17 The Rams fumbled and the Buccaneers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the BuccaneersSpecial teams +16% TB LA: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Devin White (TB LB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 96% · Rams 4%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 15
Luck in points
2.9 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 12.1
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 36% · Rams 64% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2019 games · Buccaneers · Rams

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