luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2019 NFL season · September 26, 2019–September 30

Week 4 2019: who deserved to win

7 of 15 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest heist: the Panthers beat the Texans 16–10 in a game they win 19% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 4 2019 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 1 of 9 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Buccaneers 55–40 @ Rams 25% 38% Lucky
Browns 40–25 @ Ravens 29% 25% Lucky
Panthers 16–10 @ Texans 34% 19% Lucky
Raiders 31–24 @ Colts 34% 59% Coin flip
Eagles 34–27 @ Packers 40% 83% Deserved
Titans 24–10 @ Falcons 40% 23% Lucky
Jaguars 26–24 @ Broncos 43% 15% Lucky
Saints 12–10 vs Cowboys 43% 40% Lucky
Bears 16–6 vs Vikings 47% 57% Coin flip

Week 4 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Jaguars W 26–24 @ Broncos 15% +85
2 Panthers W 16–10 @ Texans 19% +81
3 Titans W 24–10 @ Falcons 23% +77
4 Browns W 40–25 @ Ravens 25% +75
5 Patriots W 16–10 @ Bills 26% +74
6 Buccaneers W 55–40 @ Rams 38% +62
7 Saints W 12–10 vs Cowboys 40% +60
8 Seahawks W 27–10 @ Cardinals 43% +57
9 Bears W 16–6 vs Vikings 57% +43
10 Raiders W 31–24 @ Colts 59% +41
11 Giants W 24–3 vs Washington 73% +27
12 Steelers W 27–3 vs Bengals 77% +23
13 Eagles W 34–27 @ Packers 83% +17
14 Chiefs W 34–30 @ Lions 84% +16
15 Chargers W 30–10 @ Dolphins 96% +4
16 Dolphins L 10–30 vs Chargers 4% −4
17 Lions L 30–34 vs Chiefs 16% −16
18 Packers L 27–34 vs Eagles 17% −17
19 Bengals L 3–27 @ Steelers 23% −23
20 Washington L 3–24 @ Giants 27% −27
21 Colts L 24–31 vs Raiders 41% −41
22 Vikings L 6–16 @ Bears 43% −43
23 Cardinals L 10–27 vs Seahawks 57% −57
24 Cowboys L 10–12 @ Saints 60% −60
25 Rams L 40–55 vs Buccaneers 62% −62
26 Bills L 10–16 vs Patriots 74% −74
27 Ravens L 25–40 vs Browns 75% −75
28 Falcons L 10–24 vs Titans 77% −77
29 Texans L 10–16 vs Panthers 81% −81
30 Broncos L 24–26 vs Jaguars 85% −85