luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 4 2019 · September 29, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Jaguars at Broncos, Week 4 2019: who deserved to win?

The Jaguars beat the Broncos 26–24, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, the Broncos win 8 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Before kickoff the Broncos were 57% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 1:27 left): the Jaguars fumbled and recovered it themselves, worth 25 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars 26
Denver Broncos 24

September 29, 2019 · Empower Field at Mile High · Closing line: Broncos −2.5

Luck index +85 Jaguars very lucky · −85 Broncos

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jaguars win 2, Broncos win 8.

  1. 1 JAX 43 DEN 27
  2. 2 JAX 25 DEN 20
  3. 3 JAX 37 DEN 39
  4. 4 JAX 20 DEN 26
  5. 5 JAX 34 DEN 43
  6. 6 JAX 26 DEN 38
  7. 7 JAX 20 DEN 36
  8. 8 JAX 26 DEN 47
  9. 9 JAX 14 DEN 41
  10. 10 JAX 6 DEN 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jaguars win 15% of them, Broncos 85%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jaguars by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jaguars by 17+1.9%
Jaguars by 9–163.8%
Jaguars by 1–88.1%
Level after regulation2.1%
Broncos by 1–817.7%
Broncos by 9–1619.5%
Broncos by 17+46.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.2 points to the Broncos: the final margin was Jaguars by 2, without the luck Jaguars by 4.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Lambo, 25 yds made · 97% expected
  • B. McManus, 33 yds made · 93% expected
  • J. Lambo, 40 yds made · 86% expected
  • J. Lambo, 34 yds made · 93% expected
  • J. Lambo, 33 yds made · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jaguars 12 for 104 yards, Broncos 5 for 48 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:40 False Start on the Jaguars, 3 yards · pre-snap +1% JAX +0.3 pts
Q1 2:21 False Start on the Broncos (Keishawn Bierria), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% JAX +0.6 pts
Q2 9:00 Delay of Game on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DEN +0.3 pts
Q2 5:05 Intentional Grounding on the Broncos (Joe Flacco), 13 yards +2% JAX +1.2 pts
Q2 3:36 False Start on the Jaguars, 4 yards · pre-snap 0% DEN +0.1 pts
Q2 1:22 Face Mask on the Jaguars (Myles Jack), 15 yards +2% DEN +1.8 pts
Q2 0:34 Illegal Use of Hands on the Jaguars, 10 yards, wiping out the play +9% DEN +4.1 pts
Q3 12:24 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% DEN +1.9 pts
Q3 12:03 Illegal Use of Hands on the Broncos (Bradley Chubb), 5 yards +2% JAX +1.1 pts
Q3 3:08 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 7 yards +2% DEN +0.6 pts
Q3 2:01 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars (Geoff Swaim), 10 yards, wiping out the play +10% DEN +2.0 pts
Q3 1:10 Roughing the Passer on the Jaguars (Yannick Ngakoue), 15 yards +3% DEN +0.9 pts
Q3 0:16 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DEN +0.8 pts
Q4 12:47 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars (Geoff Swaim), 10 yards +4% DEN +0.9 pts
Q4 1:53 Offensive Holding on the Broncos (Noah Fant), 10 yards +5% JAX +0.8 pts
Q4 1:27 Roughing the Passer on the Broncos (Von Miller), 15 yards +11% JAX +1.8 pts
Q4 0:55 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards +11% DEN +1.1 pts

Jaguars penalties, every game · Broncos penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Broncos’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 93%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Broncos were ahead in it, below while the Jaguars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:38 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +6% JAX DEN: Punt
2 Q1 0:27 The Broncos converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +6% DEN DEN: Touchdown
3 Q2 0:34 Illegal Use of Hands on the Jaguars, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +9% DEN DEN: End of half
4 Q3 2:01 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars (Geoff Swaim), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 86 snaps before, position avg 1 per 253 +10% DEN DEN: Punt
5 Q4 4:03 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +6% JAX JAX: Field goal
6 Q4 1:27 The game turned hereThe Jaguars fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Roughing the Passer on the Broncos (Von Miller), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 160 snaps before, position avg 1 per 393 +25% JAX JAX: Field goal
7 Q4 0:55 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yardsJudgment calls +11% DEN –
8 Q4 0:04 J. Lambo made a 33-yard field goalKicks · 94% expected for him +6% JAX –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kareem Jackson (DEN CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Tim Patrick (DEN WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Jalen Ramsey (JAX CB), out · 1.6 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jaguars 80% · Broncos 20%

Final margin
Jaguars by 2
Luck in points
2.2 for the Broncos
Luck-adjusted margin
Jaguars by 4.2
Replay with same day's form
Jaguars 15% · Broncos 85% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2019 games · Jaguars · Broncos

More from Week 4 2019