luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2019 NFL season · September 19, 2019–September 23

Week 3 2019: who deserved to win

2 of 16 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest heist: the Giants beat the Buccaneers 32–31 in a game they win 19% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 3 2019 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 3 of 6 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Giants 32–31 @ Buccaneers 36% 19% Lucky
Saints 33–27 @ Seahawks 36% 67% Deserved
Lions 27–24 @ Eagles 38% 60% Coin flip
Texans 27–20 @ Chargers 41% 39% Lucky
Panthers 38–20 @ Cardinals 43% 89% Deserved
Jaguars 20–7 vs Titans 46% 89% Deserved

Week 3 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Giants W 32–31 @ Buccaneers 19% +81
2 Texans W 27–20 @ Chargers 39% +61
3 Chiefs W 33–28 vs Ravens 44% +56
4 Packers W 27–16 vs Broncos 52% +48
5 Bears W 31–15 @ Washington 54% +46
6 Lions W 27–24 @ Eagles 60% +40
7 Saints W 33–27 @ Seahawks 67% +33
8 Colts W 27–24 vs Falcons 69% +31
9 Bills W 21–17 vs Bengals 71% +30
10 Vikings W 34–14 vs Raiders 79% +21
11 Rams W 20–13 @ Browns 81% +19
12 Jaguars W 20–7 vs Titans 89% +11
13 Panthers W 38–20 @ Cardinals 89% +11
14 49ers W 24–20 vs Steelers 90% +10
15 Patriots W 30–14 vs Jets 99% +1
16 Cowboys W 31–6 vs Dolphins 100% 0
17 Dolphins L 6–31 @ Cowboys 0% 0
18 Jets L 14–30 @ Patriots 1% −1
19 Steelers L 20–24 @ 49ers 10% −10
20 Cardinals L 20–38 vs Panthers 11% −11
21 Titans L 7–20 @ Jaguars 11% −11
22 Browns L 13–20 vs Rams 19% −19
23 Raiders L 14–34 @ Vikings 21% −21
24 Bengals L 17–21 @ Bills 30% −30
25 Falcons L 24–27 @ Colts 31% −31
26 Seahawks L 27–33 vs Saints 33% −33
27 Eagles L 24–27 vs Lions 40% −40
28 Washington L 15–31 vs Bears 46% −46
29 Broncos L 16–27 @ Packers 48% −48
30 Ravens L 28–33 @ Chiefs 56% −56
31 Chargers L 20–27 vs Texans 61% −61
32 Buccaneers L 31–32 vs Giants 81% −81