luckadjusted

Week 3 2019 · September 22, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Jets at Patriots, Week 3 2019: who deserved to win?

The Patriots beat the Jets 30–14, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Patriots win 10 of 10. The Jets had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 1.6 points to the Jets.

Before kickoff the Patriots were 94% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 10:35 left): the Patriots converted 3rd & 1, worth 9 points of win probability to the Patriots.

Final

New York Jets 14
New England Patriots 30

September 22, 2019 · Gillette Stadium · Closing line: Patriots −20.5

Luck index +1 Patriots about even · −1 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jets win 0, Patriots win 10.

  1. 1 NYJ 6 NE 9
  2. 2 NYJ 3 NE 12
  3. 3 NYJ 19 NE 32
  4. 4 NYJ 5 NE 20
  5. 5 NYJ 3 NE 20
  6. 6 NYJ 6 NE 26
  7. 7 NYJ 0 NE 23
  8. 8 NYJ 19 NE 44
  9. 9 NYJ 9 NE 38
  10. 10 NYJ 6 NE 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jets win 1% of them, Patriots 99%. The line is what actually happened: Patriots by 16.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jets by 17+0.0%
Jets by 9–160.0%
Jets by 1–80.8%
Level after regulation0.2%
Patriots by 1–83.9%
Patriots by 9–1611.3%
Patriots by 17+83.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Patriots by 16. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Patriots by 11.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • S. Gostkowski, 37 yds made · 90% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Patriots’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Patriots were ahead in it, below while the Jets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:38 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +5% NE NYJ: Punt
2 Q1 10:35 The Patriots converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +9% NE NE: Touchdown
3 Q1 7:55 The Patriots missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 94% of the time +2% NYJ NE: Touchdown
4 Q1 6:39 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 18% expected +3% NE NYJ: Punt
5 Q1 2:14 The Patriots converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +2% NE NE: Touchdown
6 Q2 10:51 Illegal Use of Hands on the Jets (Leonard Williams), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 124 snaps before, position avg 1 per 242 +1% NE NE: Punt
7 Q3 11:49 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +2% NE NYJ: Punt
8 Q3 8:52 S. Gostkowski made 37-yard field goalKicks · 90% expected for him +2% NE NE: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • David Andrews (NE C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Isaiah Wynn (NE T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Shilique Calhoun (NE LB), out · 0.1 pts
  • Avery Williamson (NYJ LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Quincy Enunwa (NYJ WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Sam Darnold (NYJ QB), out, replaced by l.falk · 0.3 pts
  • Jordan Jenkins (NYJ LB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jets 1% · Patriots 99%

Final margin
Patriots by 16
Luck in points
4.9 for the Patriots
Luck-adjusted margin
Patriots by 11.1
Replay with same day's form
Jets 1% · Patriots 99% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2019 games · Jets · Patriots

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