luckadjusted

Week 3 2019 · September 22, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Panthers at Cardinals, Week 3 2019: who deserved to win?

The Panthers beat the Cardinals 38–20, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Panthers win 9 of 10.

An off day for the Cardinals: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Panthers they would win 47% of the time; with this day’s form, 11%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Cardinals were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 10:55 left): the Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 5, worth 22 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Final

Carolina Panthers 38
Arizona Cardinals 20

September 22, 2019 · State Farm Stadium · Closing line: Cardinals −2.5

Luck index +11 Panthers about even · −11 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 9, Cardinals win 1.

  1. 1 CAR 40 ARI 10
  2. 2 CAR 41 ARI 17
  3. 3 CAR 31 ARI 12
  4. 4 CAR 33 ARI 17
  5. 5 CAR 20 ARI 6
  6. 6 CAR 23 ARI 13
  7. 7 CAR 31 ARI 23
  8. 8 CAR 23 ARI 17
  9. 9 CAR 31 ARI 28
  10. 10 CAR 14 ARI 20

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Cardinals

Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Panthers they would win 47% of the time; with this day’s form, 11%.

36 points apart for the Cardinals: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Panthers offenseEPA per play gained +0.63 +0.12 better by 0.51
Panthers defenseEPA per play allowed +0.17 +0.13 worse by 0.04
Cardinals offenseEPA per play gained +0.17 −0.01 better by 0.18
Cardinals defenseEPA per play allowed +0.63 +0.13 worse by 0.50

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 89% of them, Cardinals 11%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Panthers by 18.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+45.3%
Panthers by 9–1623.0%
Panthers by 1–819.1%
Level after regulation1.7%
Cardinals by 1–87.7%
Cardinals by 9–162.5%
Cardinals by 17+0.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Panthers by 18. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Panthers by 19.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Z. Gonzalez, 34 yds made · 95% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 47 yds made · 79% expected
  • J. Slye, 36 yds made · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Cardinals’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 76%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cardinals were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:55 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expectedThe Panthers fumbled and the Cardinals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +22% ARI CAR: Touchdown
2 Q2 14:15 The Panthers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +7% CAR CAR: Touchdown
3 Q2 12:51 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +5% ARI ARI: Punt
4 Q2 4:24 Face Mask on the Panthers (Tre Boston), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 136 snaps before, position avg 1 per 465 +7% ARI ARI: Field goal
5 Q3 14:43 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +5% CAR CAR: Touchdown
6 Q3 12:03 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +6% ARI ARI: Touchdown
7 Q3 4:34 The Cardinals converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +7% ARI ARI: Field goal
8 Q3 2:52 Z. Gonzalez made 47-yard field goalKicks · 79% expected for him, 0 of 0 from 45+ before +5% ARI ARI: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kawann Short (CAR DE), out · 0.6 pts
  • Kawann Short (CAR DT), out · 0.4 pts
  • Graham Gano (CAR K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 100% · Cardinals 0%

Final margin
Panthers by 18
Luck in points
1.5 for the Cardinals
Luck-adjusted margin
Panthers by 19.5
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 89% · Cardinals 11% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2019 games · Panthers · Cardinals

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