Week 3 2019 · September 22, 2019
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Lions at Eagles, Week 3 2019: who deserved to win?
The Lions beat the Eagles 27–24, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Lions win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 25 points of win probability to the Lions.
Before kickoff the Eagles were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:55 left): Offensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Darren Sproles), 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 52 points of win probability to the Lions.
Final
 Detroit Lions | 27 |
|---|---|
 Philadelphia Eagles | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +40 Lions lucky · −40 Eagles
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Lions win 6, Eagles win 4.
- 1 DET 36 PHI 10
- 2 DET 47 PHI 30
- 3 DET 34 PHI 21
- 4 DET 26 PHI 17
- 5 DET 28 PHI 23
- 6 DET 26 PHI 24
- 7 DET 14 PHI 16
- 8 DET 10 PHI 17
- 9 DET 20 PHI 32
- 10 DET 6 PHI 30
Your call
Did the Lions earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Lions win 60% of them, Eagles 40%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Lions by 17+ | 15.3% |
| Lions by 9–16 | 15.8% |
| Lions by 1–8 | 26.8% |
| Level after regulation | 3.8% |
| Eagles by 1–8 | 19.4% |
| Eagles by 9–16 | 12.0% |
| Eagles by 17+ | 7.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- J. Elliott, 25 yds made · 98% expected
- M. Prater, 25 yds made · 98% expected
- M. Prater, 33 yds made · 94% expected
- M. Prater, 46 yds blocked · 78% expected
Penalties: Lions 9 for 61 yards, Eagles 4 for 30 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:27 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Lions (Trey Flowers), 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% PHI +1.2 pts |
| Q1 12:54 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions, 14 yards | +7% PHI +2.1 pts |
| Q2 14:17 | Defensive Offside on the Eagles (Akeem Spence), 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% DET 0.0 pts |
| Q2 12:09 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Mack Hollins), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +7% DET +2.1 pts |
| Q2 10:09 | False Start on the Lions (T.J. Hockenson), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% PHI +0.7 pts |
| Q2 6:00 | Encroachment on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% PHI +1.2 pts |
| Q3 13:04 | False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% PHI +0.7 pts |
| Q3 0:59 | False Start on the Lions (Logan Thomas), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% PHI +0.9 pts |
| Q4 14:53 | Illegal Formation on the Lions (J.D. McKissic), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +4% DET +1.0 pts |
| Q4 8:28 | Roughing the Passer on the Lions (Trey Flowers), 12 yards | +5% PHI +1.4 pts |
| Q4 7:43 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Lions (Jarrad Davis), 5 yards | +3% PHI +1.2 pts |
| Q4 1:53 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Eagles (Malcolm Jenkins), 10 yards | +6% DET +0.9 pts |
| Q4 0:55 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Darren Sproles), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +52% DET +2.8 pts |
Lions penalties, every game · Eagles penalties, every game · All teams, 2019
When it happened
Eagles’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 67%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:28 | Return touchdown by the LionsSpecial teams | +19% DET | DET: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 2:00 | The Eagles fumbled and the Lions recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +9% DET | PHI: End of half |
| 3 | Q3 6:19 | The Eagles converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +10% PHI | PHI: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q4 4:55 | The Lions converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +12% DET | DET: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 2:25 | The Eagles were stopped on 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +8% DET | PHI: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q4 1:53 | M. Prater had a 46-yard field goal blockedKicks · 78% expected for him, 1 of 1 from 45+ beforeIllegal Block Above the Waist on the Eagles (Malcolm Jenkins), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 139 snaps before, position avg 1 per 441 | +22% PHI | DET: End of game |
| 7 | Q4 0:55 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Darren Sproles), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 61 snaps before, position avg 1 per 654 | +52% DET | DET: End of game |
| 8 | Q4 0:49 | The Eagles were stopped on 4th & 153rd & 4th downs · 23% expected | +8% DET | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Alshon Jeffery (PHI WR), out · 0.9 pts
- Cre'von LeBlanc (PHI CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Lions 76% · Eagles 24%
- Final margin
- Lions by 3
- Luck in points
- 0.2 for the Lions
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Lions by 2.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Lions 60% · Eagles 40% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2019 games · 
Lions · 
Eagles
More from Week 3 2019
- Titans at Jaguars JAX 20–7 · replay 89% for the winner
- Falcons at Colts IND 27–24 · replay 69% for the winner
- Ravens at Chiefs KC 33–28 · replay 44% for the winner
- Bengals at Bills BUF 21–17 · replay 71% for the winner
- Broncos at Packers GB 27–16 · replay 52% for the winner
- Dolphins at Cowboys DAL 31–6 · replay 100% for the winner
- Jets at Patriots NE 30–14 · replay 99% for the winner
- Raiders at Vikings MIN 34–14 · replay 79% for the winner
- Panthers at Cardinals CAR 38–20 · replay 89% for the winner
- Giants at Buccaneers NYG 32–31 · replay 19% for the winner
- Texans at Chargers HOU 27–20 · replay 39% for the winner
- Saints at Seahawks NO 33–27 · replay 67% for the winner
- Steelers at 49ers SF 24–20 · replay 90% for the winner
- Rams at Browns LA 20–13 · replay 81% for the winner
- Bears at Washington CHI 31–15 · replay 54% for the winner