luckadjusted

Week 3 2019 · September 22, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Falcons at Colts, Week 3 2019: who deserved to win?

The Colts beat the Falcons 27–24 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Falcons had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 1.7 points to the Falcons.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em.

Final

Atlanta Falcons 24
Indianapolis Colts 27

September 22, 2019 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Colts −1

Luck index +31 Colts lucky · −31 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 3, Colts win 7.

  1. 1 ATL 34 IND 20
  2. 2 ATL 30 IND 23
  3. 3 ATL 19 IND 16
  4. 4 ATL 24 IND 26
  5. 5 ATL 17 IND 21
  6. 6 ATL 7 IND 13
  7. 7 ATL 13 IND 22
  8. 8 ATL 0 IND 13
  9. 9 ATL 24 IND 41
  10. 10 ATL 17 IND 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 31% of them, Colts 69%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+1.9%
Falcons by 9–167.2%
Falcons by 1–821.7%
Level after regulation2.4%
Colts by 1–830.3%
Colts by 9–1622.5%
Colts by 17+14.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Colts by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Falcons by 5.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • A. Vinatieri, 49 yds made · 75% expected
  • A. Vinatieri, 21 yds made · 99% expected
  • M. Bryant, 34 yds made · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:36 A. Vinatieri made 49-yard field goalKicks · 75% expected for him, 0 of 1 from 45+ before +7% IND IND: Touchdown
2 Q1 6:25 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yardsJudgment calls +7% IND IND: Touchdown
3 Q3 5:17 Offensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (Calvin Ridley), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 98 snaps before, position avg 1 per 331 +6% IND IND: Touchdown
4 Q3 4:52 The Falcons converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +6% ATL ATL: Touchdown
5 Q3 3:02 The Falcons converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +6% ATL ATL: Touchdown
6 Q4 10:39 Defensive Holding on the Falcons (Damontae Kazee), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 94 snaps before, position avg 1 per 441 +8% IND IND: Touchdown
7 Q4 4:57 Defensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Quincy Wilson), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 40 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +6% ATL ATL: Touchdown
8 Q4 1:56 The Colts converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +6% IND IND: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jabaal Sheard (IND DE), out · 0.7 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 83% · Colts 17%

Final margin
Colts by 3
Luck in points
8.0 for the Colts
Luck-adjusted margin
Falcons by 5.0
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 31% · Colts 69% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2019 games · Falcons · Colts

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