luckadjusted

Week 12 2019 · November 24, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Panthers at Saints, Week 12 2019: who deserved to win?

The Saints beat the Panthers 34–31, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Saints win 8 of 10. The Panthers had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 12.3 points to the Panthers.

Before kickoff the Saints were 77% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:00 left): J. Slye missed 28-yard field goal, worth 29 points of win probability to the Saints.

Final

Carolina Panthers 31
New Orleans Saints 34

November 24, 2019 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Closing line: Saints −10

Luck index +15 Saints about even · −15 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 2, Saints win 8.

  1. 1 CAR 27 NO 14
  2. 2 CAR 23 NO 19
  3. 3 CAR 31 NO 33
  4. 4 CAR 27 NO 33
  5. 5 CAR 3 NO 12
  6. 6 CAR 19 NO 31
  7. 7 CAR 20 NO 36
  8. 8 CAR 20 NO 39
  9. 9 CAR 21 NO 44
  10. 10 CAR 3 NO 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 15% of them, Saints 85%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+1.5%
Panthers by 9–163.9%
Panthers by 1–89.3%
Level after regulation2.1%
Saints by 1–819.1%
Saints by 9–1622.4%
Saints by 17+41.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Saints by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Saints by 13.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Lutz, 41 yds made · 87% expected
  • J. Slye, 41 yds made · 87% expected
  • J. Slye, 52 yds made · 70% expected
  • J. Slye, 28 yds missed · 97% expected
  • W. Lutz, 33 yds made · 95% expected
  • Extra point missed · 95% expected
  • Extra point missed · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Saints’ chance of winning

As low as 22% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Saints were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:37 The Saints converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +13% NO NO: Touchdown
2 Q1 7:54 Offensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Jared Cook), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 4 flags in 339 snaps before, position avg 1 per 253 +14% CAR CAR: Touchdown
3 Q2 0:03 The Panthers converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +11% CAR CAR: Touchdown
4 Q4 11:07 Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Marcus Williams), 29 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 656 snaps before, position avg 1 per 465 +14% CAR CAR: Touchdown
5 Q4 9:28 The Panthers converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +18% CAR CAR: Touchdown
6 Q4 2:00 J. Slye missed 28-yard field goalKicks · 97% expected for him +29% NO –
7 Q4 0:37 The Saints converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +16% NO NO: Field goal
8 Q4 0:03 W. Lutz made 33-yard field goalKicks · 95% expected for him +17% NO –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Marshon Lattimore (NO CB), out · 1.0 pts
  • Andrus Peat (NO G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Ross Cockrell (CAR CB), out · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 5% · Saints 95%

Final margin
Saints by 3
Luck in points
10.3 for the Panthers
Luck-adjusted margin
Saints by 13.3
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 15% · Saints 85% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2019 games · Panthers · Saints

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