luckadjusted

Week 12 2019 · November 25, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Ravens at Rams, Week 12 2019: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Rams 45–6, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 10 of 10. The Rams had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 2.8 points to the Rams.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 60% favorites.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 45
Los Angeles Rams 6

November 25, 2019 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · Closing line: Ravens −3.5

Luck index +3 Ravens about even · −3 Rams

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 10, Rams win 0.

  1. 1 BAL 45 LA 10
  2. 2 BAL 42 LA 14
  3. 3 BAL 37 LA 13
  4. 4 BAL 33 LA 13
  5. 5 BAL 34 LA 17
  6. 6 BAL 23 LA 7
  7. 7 BAL 23 LA 10
  8. 8 BAL 37 LA 27
  9. 9 BAL 24 LA 17
  10. 10 BAL 24 LA 21

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 97% of them, Rams 3%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 39.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+64.1%
Ravens by 9–1619.6%
Ravens by 1–812.6%
Level after regulation1.1%
Rams by 1–82.1%
Rams by 9–160.5%
Rams by 17+0.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Ravens by 39. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Ravens by 37.6.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Zuerlein, 32 yds made · 95% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 46 yds made · 79% expected
  • J. Tucker, 34 yds made · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Rams’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 55%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Rams were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:50 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +3% BAL LA: Punt
2 Q1 7:51 The Ravens converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +6% BAL BAL: Touchdown
3 Q1 6:17 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 15% expected +3% BAL LA: Punt
4 Q1 2:06 The Ravens converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected +4% BAL BAL: Touchdown
5 Q2 13:45 The Rams converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +4% LA LA: Field goal
6 Q2 11:52 Defensive Holding on the Ravens (Marlon Humphrey), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 627 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +4% LA LA: Field goal
7 Q2 8:35 The Ravens converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +3% BAL BAL: Touchdown
8 Q2 5:39 The Ravens fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +3% BAL BAL: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Rob Havenstein (LA T), out · 1.0 pts
  • John Johnson (LA SS), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Brian Allen (LA C), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Tony Jefferson (BAL SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Michael Pierce (BAL NT), out · 0.2 pts
  • Pernell McPhee (BAL LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 100% · Rams 0%

Final margin
Ravens by 39
Luck in points
1.4 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 37.6
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 97% · Rams 3% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2019 games · Ravens · Rams

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