luckadjusted

Week 10 2019 · November 10, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Vikings at Cowboys, Week 10 2019: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Cowboys 28–24, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Vikings win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 2.9 points to the Vikings.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:44 left): the Cowboys were stopped on 4th & 5, worth 40 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

Minnesota Vikings 28
Dallas Cowboys 24

November 10, 2019 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −3.5

Luck index +56 Vikings lucky · −56 Cowboys

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 4, Cowboys win 6.

  1. 1 MIN 35 DAL 17
  2. 2 MIN 24 DAL 14
  3. 3 MIN 23 DAL 17
  4. 4 MIN 34 DAL 31
  5. 5 MIN 13 DAL 16
  6. 6 MIN 24 DAL 28
  7. 7 MIN 17 DAL 24
  8. 8 MIN 27 DAL 38
  9. 9 MIN 30 DAL 44
  10. 10 MIN 12 DAL 35

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 44% of them, Cowboys 56%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+7.5%
Vikings by 9–1612.4%
Vikings by 1–823.8%
Level after regulation6.3%
Cowboys by 1–824.0%
Cowboys by 9–1615.1%
Cowboys by 17+11.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Vikings by 4. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Vikings by 2.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Maher, 57 yds missed · 63% expected
  • D. Bailey, 26 yds made · 98% expected
  • D. Bailey, 27 yds made · 98% expected
  • B. Maher, 23 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 61%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 2:00 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +13% DAL DAL: Touchdown
2 Q2 0:41 The Vikings converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +12% MIN MIN: Field goal
3 Q3 0:48 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +8% DAL MIN: Touchdown
4 Q3 0:06 The Vikings converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +15% MIN MIN: Touchdown
5 Q4 12:31 Defensive Holding on the Vikings (Harrison Smith), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 607 snaps before, position avg 1 per 441 +10% DAL DAL: Field goal
6 Q4 1:06 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +17% MIN DAL: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 0:44 The Cowboys were stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +40% MIN DAL: Turnover
8 Q4 0:03 The Cowboys were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +15% MIN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Devin Smith (DAL WR), out · 0.2 pts
  • Adam Thielen (MIN WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Trae Waynes (MIN CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Linval Joseph (MIN NT), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 59% · Cowboys 41%

Final margin
Vikings by 4
Luck in points
1.8 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 2.2
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 44% · Cowboys 56% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2019 games · Vikings · Cowboys

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