luckadjusted

Week 16 2024 · December 19, 2024

Broncos at Chargers, Week 16 2024: who deserved to win?

The Chargers beat the Broncos 34–27 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Chargers were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 7:26 left): the Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 9, worth 11 points of win probability to the Broncos.

Final

Denver Broncos 27
Los Angeles Chargers 34

December 19, 2024 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Chargers −3

Luck index +26 Chargers lucky · −26 Broncos

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Broncos win 3, Chargers win 7.

  1. 1 DEN 30 LAC 14
  2. 2 DEN 20 LAC 13
  3. 3 DEN 20 LAC 17
  4. 4 DEN 21 LAC 23
  5. 5 DEN 13 LAC 17
  6. 6 DEN 20 LAC 27
  7. 7 DEN 20 LAC 30
  8. 8 DEN 17 LAC 31
  9. 9 DEN 10 LAC 28
  10. 10 DEN 7 LAC 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Broncos win 26% of them, Chargers 74%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chargers by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Broncos by 17+3.9%
Broncos by 9–167.2%
Broncos by 1–814.2%
Level after regulation3.8%
Chargers by 1–824.1%
Chargers by 9–1620.9%
Chargers by 17+26.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Chargers by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Chargers by 4.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Dicker, 37 yds made · 94% expected
  • C. Dicker, 57 yds made · 69% expected
  • W. Lutz, 41 yds made · 87% expected
  • W. Lutz, 55 yds made · 65% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Chargers’ chance of winning

As low as 13% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chargers were ahead in it, below while the Broncos were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:59 The Broncos converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +9% DEN DEN: Touchdown
2 Q1 4:13 The Chargers converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +7% LAC LAC: Touchdown
3 Q4 14:22 The Chargers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% LAC LAC: Touchdown
4 Q4 13:36 The Chargers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +7% LAC LAC: Touchdown
5 Q4 11:35 The Broncos converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +9% DEN DEN: Punt
6 Q4 7:26 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +11% DEN LAC: Punt
7 Q4 3:46 Q. Johnston dropped a catchable passDrops · 4 drops on 88 catchable balls before this +7% DEN LAC: Touchdown
8 Q4 3:43 The Chargers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +8% LAC LAC: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Elijah Molden (LAC CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Will Dissly (LAC TE), out · 0.4 pts
  • Alohi Gilman (LAC SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Cam Hart (LAC CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • J.K. Dobbins (LAC RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Riley Moss (DEN CB), out · 0.6 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Broncos 29% · Chargers 71%

Final margin
Chargers by 7
Luck in points
2.1 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
Chargers by 4.9
Replay with same day's form
Broncos 26% · Chargers 74% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2024 games · Broncos · Chargers

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