luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 16 2024 · December 19, 2024

Broncos at Chargers, Week 16 2024: who deserved to win?

The Chargers beat the Broncos 34–27, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Chargers were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 11:35 left): the Broncos converted 3rd & 5, worth 9 points of win probability to the Broncos.

Final

Denver Broncos 27
Los Angeles Chargers 34

December 19, 2024 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Chargers −3

Luck index +23 Chargers about even · −23 Broncos

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Broncos win 2, Chargers win 8.

  1. 1 DEN 24 LAC 10
  2. 2 DEN 23 LAC 20
  3. 3 DEN 20 LAC 22
  4. 4 DEN 12 LAC 16
  5. 5 DEN 23 LAC 30
  6. 6 DEN 21 LAC 30
  7. 7 DEN 17 LAC 29
  8. 8 DEN 16 LAC 33
  9. 9 DEN 10 LAC 31
  10. 10 DEN 12 LAC 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Broncos win 23% of them, Chargers 77%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chargers by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Broncos by 17+2.5%
Broncos by 9–166.8%
Broncos by 1–813.0%
Level after regulation2.1%
Chargers by 1–827.1%
Chargers by 9–1620.4%
Chargers by 17+28.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.0 points to the Broncos: the final margin was Chargers by 7, without the luck Chargers by 8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Dicker, 37 yds made · 94% expected
  • C. Dicker, 57 yds made · 72% expected
  • W. Lutz, 41 yds made · 88% expected
  • W. Lutz, 55 yds made · 66% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Broncos 7 for 61 yards, Chargers 2 for 8 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:19 False Start on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LAC +0.8 pts
Q1 7:58 Unnecessary Roughness on the Chargers, 3 yards +1% DEN +0.7 pts
Q2 8:14 False Start on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% LAC +0.6 pts
Q2 0:08 Fair Catch Interference on the Broncos (Tremon Smith), 15 yards +4% LAC +1.4 pts
Q3 3:23 Unnecessary Roughness on the Broncos (Justin Strnad), 6 yards +3% LAC +0.9 pts
Q4 15:00 Horse Collar Tackle on the Broncos (Jonathon Cooper), 15 yards +5% LAC +1.3 pts
Q4 14:50 Defensive Offside on the Broncos (Zach Allen), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +2% DEN +0.1 pts
Q4 2:02 Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% LAC +1.9 pts
Q4 0:04 Delay of Game on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DEN 0.0 pts

Broncos penalties, every game · Chargers penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Chargers’ chance of winning

As low as 13% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chargers were ahead in it, below while the Broncos were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 2:19 The Broncos converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +7% DEN DEN: Touchdown
2 Q2 7:55 The Broncos converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +7% DEN DEN: Touchdown
3 Q4 14:22 The Chargers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% LAC LAC: Touchdown
4 Q4 13:36 The Chargers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +7% LAC LAC: Touchdown
5 Q4 11:35 The Broncos converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +9% DEN DEN: Punt
6 Q4 8:58 The Chargers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +6% LAC LAC: Punt
7 Q4 3:46 Q. Johnston dropped a catchable passDrops · 4 drops on 88 catchable balls before this +6% DEN LAC: Touchdown
8 Q4 3:43 The Chargers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +8% LAC LAC: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Elijah Molden (LAC CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Will Dissly (LAC TE), out · 0.4 pts
  • Alohi Gilman (LAC SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Cam Hart (LAC CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • J.K. Dobbins (LAC RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Riley Moss (DEN CB), out · 0.6 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Broncos 12% · Chargers 88%

Final margin
Chargers by 7
Luck in points
1.0 for the Broncos
Luck-adjusted margin
Chargers by 8.0
Replay with same day's form
Broncos 23% · Chargers 77% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2024 games · Broncos · Chargers

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