luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Referee · 2019–2026

Carl Cheffers: flags and calls

Carl Cheffers’s crews have worked 121 games since 2019: 7.9 judgment flags a game, about the same as the league average of 7.4, and 4.7 pre-snap flags. Their judgment calls were worth +3.2% of a win a game to the home team (league: +0.9%), each weighted by the moment it came.

Season by season

SeasonGamesJudgment flags per gamePre-snapToward home, a game
2019169.83.6+1.8%
2020177.45.2+12.9%
2021169.34.9+1.3%
2022187.64.8+3.8%
2023176.33.8−0.6%
2024166.63.9+0.7%
2025178.45.9+0.2%
202648.87.0+11.4%

The calls that swung games most

By the change in win probability they caused.

  1. Offensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Amon-Ra St. Brown), 0 yards, wiping out the play · PIT at DET, 2025 Week 16 · 100 pts of win probability
  2. Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards, wiping out the play · KC at LAC, 2020 Week 2 · 54 pts of win probability
  3. Offensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Isaac TeSlaa), 10 yards, wiping out the play · PIT at DET, 2025 Week 16 · 45 pts of win probability
  4. Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Jordan Hicks), 27 yards, wiping out the play · ARI at SF, 2020 Week 1 · 44 pts of win probability
  5. Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Tre'Davious White), 30 yards · BUF at DEN, 2025 Divisional round · 36 pts of win probability
  6. Offensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Stefon Diggs), 10 yards, wiping out the play · BUF at NYJ, 2023 Week 1 · 30 pts of win probability
  7. Illegal Blindside Block on the Cardinals, 10 yards, wiping out the play · ARI at LA, 2025 Week 18 · 30 pts of win probability
  8. Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards · KC at LAC, 2020 Week 2 · 29 pts of win probability

Every game

WeekGameResultWinner wins the replayLuck index
2026 Week 4 Jets at Bears CHI 23–12 94% +6
2026 Week 3 Seahawks at Commanders WAS 33–31 26% +74
2026 Week 2 Steelers at Patriots NE 20–3 90% +10
2026 Week 1 Cowboys at Giants NYG 28–20 15% +85
2025 Divisional round Bills at Broncos DEN 33–30 47% +53
2025 Week 18 Cardinals at Rams LA 37–20 91% +9
2025 Week 17 Seahawks at Panthers SEA 27–10 64% +36
2025 Week 16 Steelers at Lions PIT 29–24 79% +21
2025 Week 15 Falcons at Buccaneers ATL 29–28 34% +66
2025 Week 14 Titans at Browns TEN 31–29 30% +70
2025 Week 13 Bears at Eagles CHI 24–15 87% +13
2025 Week 12 Vikings at Packers GB 23–6 98% +2
2025 Week 11 49ers at Cardinals SF 41–22 76% +24
2025 Week 9 Chiefs at Bills BUF 28–21 86% +14
2025 Week 8 Cowboys at Broncos DEN 44–24 91% +9
2025 Week 7 Texans at Seahawks SEA 27–19 91% +9
2025 Week 6 Titans at Raiders LV 20–10 94% +6
2025 Week 5 Lions at Bengals DET 37–24 99% +1
2025 Week 4 Colts at Rams LA 27–20 87% +13
2025 Week 3 Packers at Browns CLE 13–10 17% +83
2025 Week 1 Chiefs vs Chargers LAC 27–21 85% +15
2024 Divisional round Ravens at Bills BUF 27–25 66% +34
2024 Week 18 Chargers at Raiders LAC 34–20 95% +5
2024 Week 17 Packers at Vikings MIN 27–25 78% +22
2024 Week 16 Texans at Chiefs KC 27–19 88% +12
2024 Week 15 Colts at Broncos DEN 31–13 44% +56
2024 Week 14 Panthers at Eagles PHI 22–16 79% +21
2024 Week 13 Seahawks at Jets SEA 26–21 90% +10
2024 Week 10 Falcons at Saints NO 20–17 46% +54
2024 Week 9 Bears at Cardinals ARI 29–9 96% +4
2024 Week 8 Titans at Lions DET 52–14 81% +19
2024 Week 7 Panthers at Commanders WAS 40–7 100% +1
2024 Week 6 Bengals at Giants CIN 17–7 67% +33
2024 Week 5 Colts at Jaguars JAX 37–34 14% +86
2024 Week 4 Eagles at Buccaneers TB 33–16 94% +6
2024 Week 2 Seahawks at Patriots SEA 23–20 89% +11
2024 Week 1 Jets at 49ers SF 32–19 98% +2
2023 Wild Card Steelers at Bills BUF 31–17 93% +7
2023 Week 18 Bears at Packers GB 17–9 85% +15
2023 Week 17 Panthers at Jaguars JAX 26–0 98% +2
2023 Week 16 Patriots at Broncos NE 26–23 69% +31
2023 Week 15 Giants at Saints NO 24–6 99% +1
2023 Week 14 Bills at Chiefs BUF 20–17 54% +46
2023 Week 12 Packers at Lions GB 29–22 73% +27
2023 Week 11 Seahawks at Rams LA 17–16 78% +22
2023 Week 10 Texans at Bengals HOU 30–27 82% +18
2023 Week 9 Cardinals at Browns CLE 27–0 99% +1
2023 Week 8 Eagles at Commanders PHI 38–31 68% +32
2023 Week 7 49ers at Vikings MIN 22–17 63% +37
2023 Week 5 Ravens at Steelers PIT 17–10 65% +35
2023 Week 4 Broncos at Bears DEN 31–28 48% +52
2023 Week 3 Falcons at Lions DET 20–6 98% +2
2023 Week 2 Colts at Texans IND 31–20 89% +11
2023 Week 1 Bills at Jets NYJ 22–16 59% +41
Super Bowl LVII (2023) Chiefs vs Eagles KC 38–35 83% +17
2022 Divisional round Bengals at Bills CIN 27–10 76% +24
2022 Week 18 Giants at Eagles PHI 22–16 86% +14
2022 Week 17 Vikings at Packers GB 41–17 88% +12
2022 Week 16 Bills at Bears BUF 35–13 96% +4
2022 Week 15 Chiefs at Texans KC 30–24 99% +1
2022 Week 13 Colts at Cowboys DAL 54–19 92% +8
2022 Week 12 Bengals at Titans CIN 20–16 87% +13
2022 Week 11 Jets at Patriots NE 10–3 93% +7
2022 Week 10 Saints at Steelers PIT 20–10 82% +18
2022 Week 9 Seahawks at Cardinals SEA 31–21 99% +1
2022 Week 8 Ravens at Buccaneers BAL 27–22 80% +20
2022 Week 6 49ers at Falcons ATL 28–14 78% +22
2022 Week 5 Raiders at Chiefs KC 30–29 77% +23
2022 Week 4 Bears at Giants NYG 20–12 82% +18
2022 Week 3 Saints at Panthers CAR 22–14 76% +24
2022 Week 2 Texans at Broncos DEN 16–9 95% +5
2022 Week 1 Bills at Rams BUF 31–10 84% +16
2021 NFC Championship 49ers at Rams LA 20–17 60% +41
2021 Week 17 Texans at 49ers SF 23–7 99% +1
2021 Week 16 Bears at Seahawks CHI 25–24 39% +61
2021 Week 14 Rams at Cardinals LA 30–23 68% +32
2021 Week 13 Broncos at Chiefs KC 22–9 65% +35
2021 Week 12 Falcons at Jaguars ATL 21–14 86% +14
2021 Week 11 Steelers at Chargers LAC 41–37 98% +2
2021 Week 9 Vikings at Ravens BAL 34–31 93% +7
2021 Week 8 Titans at Colts TEN 34–31 39% +61
2021 Week 7 Panthers at Giants NYG 25–3 97% +3
2021 Week 6 Cardinals at Browns ARI 37–14 58% +42
2021 Week 5 Bills at Chiefs BUF 38–20 40% +60
2021 Week 4 Seahawks at 49ers SEA 28–21 9% +91
2021 Week 3 Dolphins at Raiders LV 31–28 93% +7
2021 Week 2 Falcons at Buccaneers TB 48–25 86% +14
2021 Week 1 Packers vs Saints NO 38–3 76% +24
Super Bowl LV (2021) Chiefs vs Buccaneers TB 31–9 86% +14
2020 Divisional round Ravens at Bills BUF 17–3 82% +18
2020 Week 17 Cardinals at Rams LA 18–7 47% +53
2020 Week 16 Panthers at Washington CAR 20–13 56% +44
2020 Week 14 Washington vs 49ers WAS 23–15 28% +72
2020 Week 13 Patriots at Chargers NE 45–0 55% +45
2020 Week 12 Giants at Bengals NYG 19–17 79% +21
2020 Week 11 Chiefs at Raiders KC 35–31 44% +56
2020 Week 9 Dolphins at Cardinals MIA 34–31 32% +68
2020 Week 8 Chargers at Broncos DEN 31–30 17% +83
2020 Week 7 Bills at Jets BUF 18–10 97% +3
2020 Week 6 Rams at 49ers SF 24–16 55% +45
2020 Week 5 Bills at Titans TEN 42–16 49% +51
2020 Week 4 Falcons at Packers GB 30–16 72% +28
2020 Week 3 Cowboys at Seahawks SEA 38–31 33% +67
2020 Week 2 Chiefs at Chargers KC 23–20 38% +62
2020 Week 1 Cardinals at 49ers ARI 24–20 23% +77
2019 Wild Card Vikings at Saints MIN 26–20 36% +64
2019 Week 17 Falcons at Buccaneers ATL 28–22 13% +87
2019 Week 16 Chiefs at Bears KC 26–3 96% +4
2019 Week 15 Seahawks at Panthers SEA 30–24 80% +20
2019 Week 14 Bengals at Browns CLE 27–19 61% +39
2019 Week 13 Titans at Colts TEN 31–17 28% +72
2019 Week 12 Packers at 49ers SF 37–8 94% +6
2019 Week 10 Lions at Bears CHI 20–13 14% +86
2019 Week 9 Patriots at Ravens BAL 37–20 93% +7
2019 Week 8 Washington at Vikings MIN 19–9 80% +20
2019 Week 7 Dolphins at Bills BUF 31–21 85% +15
2019 Week 6 Falcons at Cardinals ARI 34–33 29% +71
2019 Week 4 Cowboys at Saints NO 12–10 40% +60
2019 Week 3 Jets at Patriots NE 30–14 99% +1
2019 Week 2 Seahawks at Steelers SEA 28–26 57% +43
2019 Week 1 Chiefs at Jaguars KC 40–26 92% +8