Super Bowl 2022 · February 12, 2023
Chiefs vs Eagles, Super Bowl LVII (2023): who deserved to win?
The Chiefs beat the Eagles 38–35, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Chiefs win 8 of 10. The Eagles had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Eagles.
An off day for the Eagles: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Chiefs they would win 50% of the time; with this day’s form, 17%. The numbers
Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q2, 9:48 left): Return touchdown by the Chiefs, worth 32 points of win probability to the Chiefs.
Final
 Kansas City Chiefs | 38 |
|---|---|
 Philadelphia Eagles | 35 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +17 Chiefs about even · −17 Eagles
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Chiefs win 8, Eagles win 2.
- 1 KC 31 PHI 3
- 2 KC 34 PHI 13
- 3 KC 27 PHI 10
- 4 KC 40 PHI 26
- 5 KC 13 PHI 3
- 6 KC 21 PHI 14
- 7 KC 21 PHI 17
- 8 KC 22 PHI 20
- 9 KC 31 PHI 34
- 10 KC 20 PHI 31
Your call
Did the Chiefs earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Eagles
Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Chiefs they would win 50% of the time; with this day’s form, 17%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
33 points apart for the Eagles: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs offenseEPA per play gained | +0.38 | +0.24 | better by 0.13 |
| Chiefs defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.28 | +0.08 | worse by 0.20 |
| Eagles offenseEPA per play gained | +0.28 | +0.20 | better by 0.08 |
| Eagles defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.38 | +0.07 | worse by 0.31 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Chiefs win 83% of them, Eagles 17%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chiefs by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Chiefs by 17+ | 31.0% |
| Chiefs by 9–16 | 22.8% |
| Chiefs by 1–8 | 26.5% |
| Level after regulation | 2.9% |
| Eagles by 1–8 | 11.0% |
| Eagles by 9–16 | 4.5% |
| Eagles by 17+ | 1.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- H. Butker, 42 yds missed · 88% expected
- J. Elliott, 35 yds made · 94% expected
- J. Elliott, 33 yds made · 95% expected
- H. Butker, 27 yds made · 98% expected
Penalties: Chiefs 3 for 14 yards, Eagles 6 for 33 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 6:57 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Zach Pascal), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +4% KC +1.5 pts |
| Q1 4:12 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Eagles (Ndamukong Suh), 5 yards | +2% KC +0.7 pts |
| Q1 1:08 | Defensive Offside on the Chiefs (Frank Clark), 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% PHI +1.1 pts |
| Q2 10:12 | False Start on the Eagles, 4 yards · pre-snap | +2% KC +1.1 pts |
| Q2 2:42 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Chiefs (Derrick Nnadi), 4 yards · pre-snap | +6% PHI +2.8 pts |
| Q2 1:51 | False Start on the Chiefs, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% PHI +0.5 pts |
| Q3 6:13 | Delay of Game on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% KC +0.6 pts |
| Q4 14:19 | Defensive Offside on the Eagles (Josh Sweat), 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% KC +0.5 pts |
| Q4 1:54 | Defensive Holding on the Eagles (James Bradberry), 4 yards | +10% KC +1.4 pts |
Chiefs penalties, every game · Eagles penalties, every game · All teams, 2022
When it happened
Eagles’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 85%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 2:28 | H. Butker missed a 42-yard field goalKicks · 88% expected for him | +12% PHI | KC: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 9:48 | The Eagles fumbled and the Chiefs recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the ChiefsSpecial teams | +32% KC | PHI: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 5:28 | The Eagles converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +12% PHI | PHI: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 8:43 | The Eagles converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 42% expectedThe Eagles got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws | +8% PHI | PHI: Field goal |
| 5 | Q3 6:13 | The Eagles converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedThe Eagles got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throwsDelay of Game on the Eagles, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +10% PHI | PHI: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 9:26 | The Chiefs converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +9% KC | KC: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 5:15 | The Eagles’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +12% PHI | PHI: End of game |
| 8 | Q4 1:54 | Defensive Holding on the Eagles (James Bradberry), 4 yardsJudgment calls · 14 flags in 4612 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 | +10% KC | KC: Field goal |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Brett Kern (PHI P), out · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Chiefs 69% · Eagles 31%
- Final margin
- Chiefs by 3
- Luck in points
- 0.6 for the Chiefs
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Chiefs by 2.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Chiefs 83% · Eagles 17% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Super Bowl 2022 games · 
Chiefs · 
Eagles