Super Bowl 2020 · February 7, 2021
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Chiefs vs Buccaneers, Super Bowl 2020: who deserved to win?
The Buccaneers beat the Chiefs 31–9, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Buccaneers win 8 of 10.
An off day for the Chiefs: their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Buccaneers they would win 49% of the time; with this day’s form, 17%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Chiefs were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 7:55 left): Defensive Holding on the Chiefs, 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 14 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.
Final
 Kansas City Chiefs | 9 |
|---|---|
 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 31 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +17 Buccaneers about even · −17 Chiefs
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Chiefs win 2, Buccaneers win 8.
- 1 KC 37 TB 23
- 2 KC 13 TB 10
- 3 KC 27 TB 30
- 4 KC 17 TB 23
- 5 KC 33 TB 41
- 6 KC 20 TB 31
- 7 KC 17 TB 32
- 8 KC 14 TB 33
- 9 KC 20 TB 44
- 10 KC 16 TB 49
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Chiefs
Their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Buccaneers they would win 49% of the time; with this day’s form, 17%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
32 points apart for the Chiefs: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs offenseEPA per play gained | −0.10 | +0.25 | worse by 0.34 |
| Chiefs defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.27 | +0.12 | worse by 0.15 |
| Buccaneers offenseEPA per play gained | +0.27 | +0.19 | better by 0.08 |
| Buccaneers defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.10 | +0.11 | better by 0.20 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Chiefs win 17% of them, Buccaneers 83%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 22.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Chiefs by 17+ | 1.9% |
| Chiefs by 9–16 | 4.8% |
| Chiefs by 1–8 | 9.6% |
| Level after regulation | 1.0% |
| Buccaneers by 1–8 | 23.6% |
| Buccaneers by 9–16 | 19.9% |
| Buccaneers by 17+ | 39.1% |
Where the luck was
Take the luck out
The final margin was Buccaneers by 22. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Buccaneers by 14.7.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- H. Butker, 49 yds made · 74% expected
- H. Butker, 34 yds made · 94% expected
- H. Butker, 52 yds made · 69% expected
- R. Succop, 52 yds made · 65% expected
When it happened
Buccaneers’ chance of winning
As low as 40% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:48 | The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +5% KC | TB: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 12:48 | The Chiefs converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +5% KC | KC: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 9:22 | The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +6% KC | TB: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 14:46 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Chiefs (Chris Jones), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 16 flags in 1604 snaps before, position avg 1 per 262 | +6% TB | TB: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q2 10:55 | The Buccaneers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected | +6% KC | TB: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 7:55 | Defensive Holding on the Chiefs, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +14% TB | TB: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 6:19 | The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +5% KC | TB: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 6:15 | Defensive Offside on the Chiefs (Mecole Hardman), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 3 flags in 1438 snaps before, position avg 1 per 385 | +7% TB | TB: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Alex Cappa (TB G), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Eric Fisher (KC T), out (IR) · 1.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Chiefs 2% · Buccaneers 98%
- Final margin
- Buccaneers by 22
- Luck in points
- 7.3 for the Buccaneers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Buccaneers by 14.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Chiefs 17% · Buccaneers 83% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Super Bowl 2020 games · 
Chiefs · 
Buccaneers