Chiefs 9 
Buccaneers 31 Replays agree · Buccaneers win 86% of replays Off day for the Chiefs 49% to win a fresh game, 14% with this day’s form: offense and defense both far below their usual level. 2020 NFL season · February 7, 2021
Super Bowl LV (2021): who deserved to win
The winner wasn’t outplayed. The closest call: the Buccaneers won 31–9 and take 86% of replays.
The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.
Chiefs 9 Buccaneers 31 Replays agree · Buccaneers win 86% of replays Off day for the Chiefs 49% to win a fresh game, 14% with this day’s form: offense and defense both far below their usual level. Super Bowl LV (2021) upsets
Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 1 of 1 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.
| Winner | Game | Before kickoff | Replay with same day’s form | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers | 31–9 vs Chiefs | 41% | 86% | Deserved |
Luck ranking, super bowl
Every team’s luck index this round: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.
| # | Team | Game | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buccaneers | W 31–9 vs Chiefs | 86% | +14 |
| 2 | Chiefs | L 9–31 @ Buccaneers | 14% | −14 |