luckadjusted

Week 9 2022 · November 6, 2022

Seahawks at Cardinals, Week 9 2022: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the Cardinals 31–21, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Seahawks win 10 of 10. The Cardinals had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 3.0 points to the Cardinals.

An off day for the Cardinals: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Seahawks they would win 53% of the time; with this day’s form, 1%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Cardinals were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 9:26 left): Return touchdown by the Cardinals, worth 38 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Final

Seattle Seahawks 31
Arizona Cardinals 21

November 6, 2022 · State Farm Stadium · Closing line: Cardinals −1.5

Luck index +1 Seahawks about even · −1 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Seahawks win 10, Cardinals win 0.

  1. 1 SEA 45 ARI 6
  2. 2 SEA 33 ARI 3
  3. 3 SEA 33 ARI 6
  4. 4 SEA 30 ARI 6
  5. 5 SEA 30 ARI 10
  6. 6 SEA 25 ARI 7
  7. 7 SEA 23 ARI 7
  8. 8 SEA 36 ARI 24
  9. 9 SEA 14 ARI 6
  10. 10 SEA 30 ARI 26

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Cardinals

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Seahawks they would win 53% of the time; with this day’s form, 1%.

53 points apart for the Cardinals: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Seahawks offenseEPA per play gained +0.22 +0.13 better by 0.09
Seahawks defenseEPA per play allowed −0.07 +0.10 better by 0.17
Cardinals offenseEPA per play gained −0.07 +0.08 worse by 0.14
Cardinals defenseEPA per play allowed +0.22 +0.13 worse by 0.10

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Seahawks win 99% of them, Cardinals 1%. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Seahawks by 17+86.6%
Seahawks by 9–1610.1%
Seahawks by 1–82.6%
Level after regulation0.1%
Cardinals by 1–80.7%
Cardinals by 9–160.1%
Cardinals by 17+0.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Seahawks by 10. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Seahawks by 3.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

When it happened

Cardinals’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 75%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cardinals were ahead in it, below while the Seahawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 10:41 Illegal Contact on the Seahawks (Quandre Diggs), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 5 flags in 3759 snaps before, position avg 1 per 548 +15% ARI ARI: Punt
2 Q2 6:47 The Seahawks were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +10% ARI SEA: Punt
3 Q2 1:04 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +10% ARI ARI: Turnover
4 Q2 0:29 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expectedR. Anderson dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 16 catchable balls before this +10% SEA ARI: Turnover
5 Q3 9:26 The Seahawks threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the CardinalsSpecial teams +38% ARI SEA: Touchdown
6 Q3 2:48 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +10% SEA SEA: Touchdown
7 Q3 1:37 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +10% ARI ARI: Punt
8 Q4 10:58 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +11% SEA SEA: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Marquise Brown (ARI WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Rodney Hudson (ARI C), out · 0.6 pts
  • Justin Pugh (ARI G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Darrell Taylor (SEA DE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Rashaad Penny (SEA RB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Seahawks 72% · Cardinals 28%

Final margin
Seahawks by 10
Luck in points
6.2 for the Seahawks
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 3.8
Replay with same day's form
Seahawks 99% · Cardinals 1% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2022 games · Seahawks · Cardinals

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