luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 9 2022 · November 6, 2022

Rams at Buccaneers, Week 9 2022: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Rams 16–13, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Rams had the bounces: drops alone were worth 13 points of win probability to the Rams.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:24 left): the Buccaneers converted 3rd & 6, worth 13 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final

Los Angeles Rams 13
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16

November 6, 2022 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −3

Luck index +29 Buccaneers lucky · −29 Rams

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Rams win 3, Buccaneers win 7.

  1. 1 LA 27 TB 10
  2. 2 LA 25 TB 17
  3. 3 LA 16 TB 13
  4. 4 LA 31 TB 33
  5. 5 LA 17 TB 22
  6. 6 LA 21 TB 29
  7. 7 LA 10 TB 21
  8. 8 LA 24 TB 38
  9. 9 LA 7 TB 26
  10. 10 LA 7 TB 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Rams win 29% of them, Buccaneers 71%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Rams by 17+4.0%
Rams by 9–168.3%
Rams by 1–814.5%
Level after regulation3.2%
Buccaneers by 1–825.0%
Buccaneers by 9–1620.8%
Buccaneers by 17+24.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +13.0 points to the Rams: the final margin was Buccaneers by 3, without the luck Buccaneers by 16. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Succop, 20 yds made · 98% expected
  • R. Succop, 52 yds blocked · 68% expected
  • R. Succop, 38 yds made · 90% expected
  • M. Gay, 26 yds made · 98% expected
  • M. Gay, 35 yds made · 94% expected
  • R. Succop, 50 yds made · 69% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Rams 4 for 53 yards, Buccaneers 7 for 55 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:43 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards +2% LA +1.0 pts
Q1 6:24 Defensive Offside on the Buccaneers (Joe Tryon-Shoyinka), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +4% LA +1.4 pts
Q1 3:18 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% LA +1.8 pts
Q1 0:15 Defensive Offside on the Buccaneers (Genard Avery), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LA +0.3 pts
Q2 1:41 Defensive Pass Interference on the Rams, 32 yards +3% TB +1.7 pts
Q3 14:17 Offensive Holding on the Rams, 10 yards +3% TB +0.9 pts
Q3 7:56 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% LA +2.0 pts
Q3 7:46 False Start on the Buccaneers (Anthony Nelson), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LA +0.3 pts
Q4 9:19 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% LA +1.9 pts
Q4 0:16 Defensive Pass Interference on the Rams, 6 yards +6% TB +0.8 pts
Q4 0:09 False Start on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TB 0.0 pts

Rams penalties, every game · Buccaneers penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

As low as 10% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Rams were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 4:44 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +8% TB TB: Missed field goal
2 Q2 3:07 K. Vaughn dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 0 catchable balls before this +9% LA TB: Missed field goal
3 Q3 12:07 The Rams converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +9% LA LA: Field goal
4 Q4 9:19 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% LA LA: Punt
5 Q4 4:29 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +9% TB TB: Turnover on downs
6 Q4 3:35 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +9% TB TB: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 2:02 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +10% LA TB: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:24 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +13% TB TB: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Luke Goedeke (TB G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Russell Gage (TB WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Logan Ryan (TB FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Cameron Brate (TB TE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Shaquil Barrett (TB LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • David Edwards (LA G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Joseph Noteboom (LA T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Coleman Shelton (LA G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jordan Fuller (LA SS), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Rams 1% · Buccaneers 99%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 3
Luck in points
13.0 for the Rams
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 16.0
Replay with same day's form
Rams 29% · Buccaneers 71% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2022 games · Rams · Buccaneers

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