luckadjusted

Week 9 2022 · November 6, 2022

Bills at Jets, Week 9 2022: who deserved to win?

The Jets beat the Bills 20–17, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Jets win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 2.9 points to the Jets.

Before kickoff the Bills were 79% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:43 left): Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 40 points of win probability to the Jets.

Final

Buffalo Bills 17
New York Jets 20

November 6, 2022 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Bills −11

Luck index +60 Jets lucky · −60 Bills

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bills win 6, Jets win 4.

  1. 1 BUF 24 NYJ 2
  2. 2 BUF 36 NYJ 20
  3. 3 BUF 14 NYJ 3
  4. 4 BUF 21 NYJ 13
  5. 5 BUF 23 NYJ 17
  6. 6 BUF 24 NYJ 21
  7. 7 BUF 28 NYJ 30
  8. 8 BUF 10 NYJ 16
  9. 9 BUF 13 NYJ 24
  10. 10 BUF 16 NYJ 35

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bills win 60% of them, Jets 40%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jets by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bills by 17+12.6%
Bills by 9–1617.5%
Bills by 1–828.7%
Level after regulation2.3%
Jets by 1–820.8%
Jets by 9–1613.0%
Jets by 17+5.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Jets by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Jets by 3.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Zuerlein, 53 yds made · 59% expected
  • T. Bass, 55 yds missed · 56% expected
  • T. Bass, 51 yds made · 63% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 28 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 22% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Bills were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 6:38 The Bills converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +11% BUF BUF: Touchdown
2 Q3 10:38 The Jets converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +12% NYJ NYJ: Turnover
3 Q3 6:29 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expectedThe Jets fumbled and the Bills recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +26% BUF NYJ: Touchdown
4 Q3 5:30 The Jets fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +11% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
5 Q4 13:38 T. Bass made 51-yard field goalKicks · 63% expected for him, 16 of 24 from 45+ before +10% BUF BUF: Punt
6 Q4 8:19 The Bills got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 45% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +10% BUF BUF: Punt
7 Q4 1:43 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +40% NYJ NYJ: End of game
8 Q4 1:17 The Bills fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +25% BUF BUF: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Joe Flacco (NYJ QB), out, replaced by z.wilson · 1.1 pts
  • Corey Davis (NYJ WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • George Fant (NYJ T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Max Mitchell (NYJ T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Breece Hall (NYJ RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Alijah Vera-Tucker (NYJ G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Spencer Brown (BUF T), out · 1.2 pts
  • Micah Hyde (BUF FS), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Jordan Poyer (BUF SS), out · 0.6 pts
  • Matt Milano (BUF LB), out · 0.6 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bills 33% · Jets 67%

Final margin
Jets by 3
Luck in points
0.3 for the Bills
Luck-adjusted margin
Jets by 3.3
Replay with same day's form
Bills 60% · Jets 40% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2022 games · Bills · Jets

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