luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 15 2022 · December 18, 2022

Chiefs at Texans, Week 15 2022: who deserved to win?

The Chiefs beat the Texans 30–24, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Chiefs win 10 of 10. The Texans had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 29 points of win probability to the Texans.

Before kickoff the Chiefs were 86% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:12 left): H. Butker missed a 51-yard field goal, worth 22 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final (OT)

Kansas City Chiefs 30
Houston Texans 24

December 18, 2022 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Chiefs −14.5

Luck index +1 Chiefs about even · −1 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chiefs win 10, Texans win 0.

  1. 1 KC 51 HOU 7
  2. 2 KC 42 HOU 7
  3. 3 KC 38 HOU 7
  4. 4 KC 45 HOU 17
  5. 5 KC 45 HOU 21
  6. 6 KC 30 HOU 9
  7. 7 KC 44 HOU 27
  8. 8 KC 36 HOU 23
  9. 9 KC 34 HOU 26
  10. 10 KC 24 HOU 19

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chiefs win 99% of them, Texans 1%. The line is what actually happened: Chiefs by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chiefs by 17+85.3%
Chiefs by 9–1610.3%
Chiefs by 1–83.3%
Level after regulation0.1%
Texans by 1–80.9%
Texans by 9–160.1%
Texans by 17+0.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.8 points to the Texans: the final margin was Chiefs by 6, without the luck Chiefs by 12.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • H. Butker, 27 yds made · 99% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 29 yds made · 97% expected
  • H. Butker, 51 yds missed · 74% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Chiefs 10 for 102 yards, Texans 4 for 33 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 1:45 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs, 14 yards +7% HOU +2.2 pts
Q2 9:52 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% KC +0.4 pts
Q2 4:13 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs (L'Jarius Sneed), 3 yards +1% HOU +0.2 pts
Q2 3:18 Unnecessary Roughness on the Chiefs (Travis Kelce), 11 yards +3% HOU +0.8 pts
Q3 7:25 Unnecessary Roughness on the Texans, 15 yards +6% KC +1.8 pts
Q3 6:28 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs (JuJu Smith-Schuster), 10 yards +3% HOU +0.9 pts
Q3 5:50 Illegal Blindside Block on the Chiefs (Jerick McKinnon), 15 yards +4% HOU +1.3 pts
Q3 4:35 Defensive Offside on the Chiefs (Frank Clark), 5 yards · pre-snap +5% HOU +0.8 pts
Q3 3:27 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs (Juan Thornhill), 16 yards +7% HOU +2.0 pts
Q3 3:23 Illegal Contact on the Chiefs (Juan Thornhill), 5 yards +5% HOU +0.5 pts
Q3 1:53 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% KC +0.6 pts
Q4 13:12 Low Block on the Texans, 8 yards +6% KC +1.1 pts
Q4 11:15 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs (L'Jarius Sneed), 14 yards +8% HOU +1.8 pts
OT 10:00 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs (Noah Gray), 9 yards 0% HOU +0.8 pts

Chiefs penalties, every game · Texans penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 79%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Chiefs were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 5:50 The Chiefs fumbled and the Texans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Illegal Blindside Block on the Chiefs (Jerick McKinnon), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 1395 snaps before, position avg 1 per 821 +12% HOU KC: Touchdown
2 Q3 1:30 The Texans converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +13% HOU HOU: Touchdown
3 Q4 11:15 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs (L'Jarius Sneed), 14 yardsJudgment calls · 16 flags in 2636 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +8% HOU HOU: Field goal
4 Q4 10:25 The Texans converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +10% HOU HOU: Field goal
5 Q4 1:54 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +14% KC KC: Missed field goal
6 Q4 0:12 H. Butker missed a 51-yard field goalKicks · 74% expected for him, 29 of 40 from 45+ before +22% HOU KC: Punt
7 OT 6:22 The Chiefs were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +20% HOU KC: Punt
8 OT 5:34 The Texans fumbled and the Chiefs recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +13% KC –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Brandin Cooks (HOU WR), out · 0.9 pts
  • Steven Nelson (HOU CB), out · 0.9 pts
  • Nico Collins (HOU WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Kenyon Green (HOU G), out · 0.2 pts
  • Dameon Pierce (HOU RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Mecole Hardman (KC WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chiefs 99% · Texans 1%

Final margin
Chiefs by 6
Luck in points
6.8 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Chiefs by 12.8
Replay with same day's form
Chiefs 99% · Texans 1% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2022 games · Chiefs · Texans

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