luckadjusted

Week 15 2022 · December 18, 2022

Chiefs at Texans, Week 15 2022: who deserved to win?

The Chiefs beat the Texans 30–24, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Chiefs win 10 of 10. The Texans had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 8.5 points to the Texans.

Before kickoff the Chiefs were 86% favorites. The biggest swing (QOT, 6:22 left): the Chiefs were stopped on 3rd & 4, worth 35 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final (OT)

Kansas City Chiefs 30
Houston Texans 24

December 18, 2022 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Chiefs −14.5

Luck index +3 Chiefs about even · −3 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chiefs win 10, Texans win 0.

  1. 1 KC 40 HOU 0
  2. 2 KC 38 HOU 6
  3. 3 KC 31 HOU 3
  4. 4 KC 44 HOU 19
  5. 5 KC 31 HOU 10
  6. 6 KC 40 HOU 23
  7. 7 KC 29 HOU 14
  8. 8 KC 41 HOU 30
  9. 9 KC 37 HOU 30
  10. 10 KC 22 HOU 19

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chiefs win 97% of them, Texans 3%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chiefs by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chiefs by 17+76.1%
Chiefs by 9–1614.9%
Chiefs by 1–85.9%
Level after regulation0.5%
Texans by 1–82.0%
Texans by 9–160.5%
Texans by 17+0.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Chiefs by 6. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Chiefs by 16.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • H. Butker, 27 yds made · 99% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 29 yds made · 97% expected
  • H. Butker, 51 yds missed · 75% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 79%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Chiefs were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 5:50 The Chiefs fumbled and the Texans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Illegal Blindside Block on the Chiefs (Jerick McKinnon), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 1395 snaps before, position avg 1 per 821 +12% HOU KC: Touchdown
2 Q3 1:30 The Texans converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +15% HOU HOU: Touchdown
3 Q4 10:25 The Texans converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +10% HOU HOU: Field goal
4 Q4 1:54 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +14% KC KC: Missed field goal
5 Q4 0:12 H. Butker missed 51-yard field goalKicks · 75% expected for him, 29 of 40 from 45+ before +23% HOU KC: Punt
6 QOT 8:08 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expected +10% KC KC: Punt
7 QOT 6:22 The Chiefs were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +35% HOU KC: Punt
8 QOT 5:34 The Texans fumbled and the Chiefs recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +12% KC –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Brandin Cooks (HOU WR), out · 1.0 pts
  • Steven Nelson (HOU CB), out · 0.9 pts
  • Nico Collins (HOU WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Kenyon Green (HOU G), out · 0.2 pts
  • Dameon Pierce (HOU RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Mecole Hardman (KC WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chiefs 100% · Texans 0%

Final margin
Chiefs by 6
Luck in points
10.8 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Chiefs by 16.8
Replay with same day's form
Chiefs 97% · Texans 3% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2022 games · Chiefs · Texans

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