luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 15 2022 · December 18, 2022

Cowboys at Jaguars, Week 15 2022: who deserved to win?

The Jaguars beat the Cowboys 40–34, but the replays lean toward the Cowboys: they take 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 20 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 62% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 0:05 left): R. Patterson made a 48-yard field goal, worth 20 points of win probability to the Jaguars. The biggest single swing (OT, 7:04 left): Return touchdown by the Jaguars.

Final (OT)

Dallas Cowboys 34
Jacksonville Jaguars 40

December 18, 2022 · TIAA Bank Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −4

Luck index +64 Jaguars very lucky · −64 Cowboys

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cowboys win 6, Jaguars win 4.

  1. 1 DAL 54 JAX 26
  2. 2 DAL 39 JAX 21
  3. 3 DAL 29 JAX 17
  4. 4 DAL 19 JAX 10
  5. 5 DAL 36 JAX 30
  6. 6 DAL 28 JAX 26
  7. 7 DAL 45 JAX 48
  8. 8 DAL 27 JAX 34
  9. 9 DAL 14 JAX 27
  10. 10 DAL 17 JAX 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cowboys win 64% of them, Jaguars 36%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jaguars by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cowboys by 17+19.3%
Cowboys by 9–1618.0%
Cowboys by 1–826.0%
Level after regulation2.4%
Jaguars by 1–817.0%
Jaguars by 9–169.8%
Jaguars by 17+7.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.1 points to the Cowboys: the final margin was Jaguars by 6, without the luck Jaguars by 9.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Patterson, 33 yds made · 94% expected
  • B. Maher, 24 yds made · 97% expected
  • B. Maher, 53 yds made · 62% expected
  • R. Patterson, 48 yds made · 73% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cowboys 2 for 18 yards, Jaguars 4 for 37 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:43 Delay of Game on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% JAX +0.5 pts
Q1 3:02 Unnecessary Roughness on the Cowboys, 13 yards +3% JAX +1.2 pts
Q1 0:09 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars, 17 yards +2% DAL +1.4 pts
Q2 1:51 False Start on the Jaguars (Evan Engram), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DAL +0.5 pts
Q3 3:04 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Jaguars, 10 yards +1% DAL +0.9 pts
OT 9:20 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +7% DAL +0.7 pts

Cowboys penalties, every game · Jaguars penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 6% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Cowboys were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 1:28 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +8% JAX JAX: Touchdown
2 Q4 10:07 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +7% JAX JAX: Touchdown
3 Q4 3:07 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +9% DAL DAL: Touchdown
4 Q4 1:38 The Jaguars fumbled and the Cowboys recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +17% DAL JAX: Field goal
5 Q4 1:01 M. Jones dropped a catchable passDrops · 3 drops on 41 catchable balls before this +20% DAL JAX: Field goal
6 Q4 0:12 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +8% JAX JAX: Field goal
7 Q4 0:05 The game turned hereR. Patterson made a 48-yard field goalKicks · 73% expected for him, 7 of 9 from 45+ before +20% JAX JAX: Punt
8 OT 7:04 The Cowboys were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throwsReturn touchdown by the JaguarsSpecial teams +74% JAX –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Travon Walker (JAX LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Terence Steele (DAL T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Anthony Brown (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Jourdan Lewis (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cowboys 3% · Jaguars 97%

Final margin
Jaguars by 6
Luck in points
3.1 for the Cowboys
Luck-adjusted margin
Jaguars by 9.1
Replay with same day's form
Cowboys 64% · Jaguars 36% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2022 games · Cowboys · Jaguars

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