Week 15 2022 · December 18, 2022
Cardinals at Broncos, Week 15 2022: who deserved to win?
The Broncos beat the Cardinals 24–15, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Broncos win 9 of 10. The Cardinals had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 8 points of win probability to the Cardinals.
Before kickoff the Broncos were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:17 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos, 12 yards, worth 10 points of win probability to the Cardinals.
Final
 Arizona Cardinals | 15 |
|---|---|
 Denver Broncos | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +13 Broncos about even · −13 Cardinals
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Cardinals win 1, Broncos win 9.
- 1 ARI 26 DEN 17
- 2 ARI 31 DEN 33
- 3 ARI 14 DEN 19
- 4 ARI 14 DEN 22
- 5 ARI 17 DEN 27
- 6 ARI 24 DEN 37
- 7 ARI 6 DEN 22
- 8 ARI 15 DEN 34
- 9 ARI 3 DEN 27
- 10 ARI 0 DEN 32
Your call
Did the Broncos earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Cardinals win 13% of them, Broncos 87%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Broncos by 9.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Cardinals by 17+ | 1.0% |
| Cardinals by 9–16 | 3.1% |
| Cardinals by 1–8 | 8.2% |
| Level after regulation | 1.8% |
| Broncos by 1–8 | 17.2% |
| Broncos by 9–16 | 20.3% |
| Broncos by 17+ | 48.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- B. McManus, 52 yds made · 67% expected
- B. McManus, 38 yds missed · 90% expected
- M. Prater, 45 yds made · 77% expected
- M. Prater, 50 yds made · 66% expected
- M. Prater, 55 yds made · 61% expected
Penalties: Cardinals 7 for 46 yards, Broncos 4 for 31 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:16 | Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards | +7% ARI +1.4 pts |
| Q2 3:59 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Broncos, 4 yards | +1% ARI +0.4 pts |
| Q2 0:21 | Illegal Shift on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% DEN +0.4 pts |
| Q2 0:17 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos, 12 yards | +10% ARI +0.9 pts |
| Q3 11:37 | Illegal Formation on the Cardinals, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +6% DEN +1.6 pts |
| Q3 10:14 | Defensive Offside on the Broncos (Baron Browning), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% ARI +0.6 pts |
| Q3 10:06 | Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards | +6% DEN +1.8 pts |
| Q3 5:58 | Intentional Grounding on the Cardinals (Trace McSorley), 11 yards | +3% DEN +1.0 pts |
| Q3 3:22 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cardinals (J.J. Watt), 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% DEN +0.6 pts |
| Q4 12:58 | Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ARI +0.3 pts |
| Q4 10:18 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Cardinals, 5 yards | +1% DEN +0.5 pts |
Cardinals penalties, every game · Broncos penalties, every game · All teams, 2022
When it happened
Broncos’ chance of winning
As low as 30% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:16 | Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +7% ARI | ARI: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 6:27 | The Broncos fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +8% DEN | DEN: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 0:42 | The Broncos fumbled and the Cardinals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% ARI | DEN: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 0:17 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos, 12 yardsJudgment calls | +10% ARI | ARI: Field goal |
| 5 | Q3 9:00 | M. Prater made a 55-yard field goalKicks · 61% expected for him, 31 of 46 from 45+ before | +9% ARI | ARI: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 3:10 | The Broncos converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +7% DEN | DEN: Turnover |
| 7 | Q3 0:27 | The Broncos converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +7% DEN | DEN: Turnover |
| 8 | Q3 0:01 | The Broncos threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws | +10% ARI | DEN: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Russell Wilson (DEN QB), out, replaced by b.rypien · 4.4 pts
- Courtland Sutton (DEN WR), out · 0.9 pts
- Dre'Mont Jones (DEN DE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
- Kendall Hinton (DEN WR), out · 0.6 pts
- Jonas Griffith (DEN LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Mitchell Fraboni (DEN LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
- Kyler Murray (ARI QB), out (IR), replaced by c.mccoy · 3.8 pts
- Byron Murphy (ARI CB), out · 1.1 pts
- Zach Ertz (ARI TE), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
- Zach Allen (ARI DE), out · 1.0 pts
- Rondale Moore (ARI WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
- D.J. Humphries (ARI T), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
- Rashaad Coward (ARI T), out · 0.5 pts
- Marco Wilson (ARI CB), out · 0.4 pts
- Antonio Hamilton (ARI CB), out · 0.4 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Cardinals 12% · Broncos 88%
- Final margin
- Broncos by 9
- Luck in points
- 4.1 for the Broncos
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Broncos by 4.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Cardinals 13% · Broncos 87% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2022 games · 
Cardinals · 
Broncos
More from Week 15 2022
- 49ers at Seahawks SF 21–13 · replay 88% for the winner
- Colts at Vikings MIN 39–36 · replay 93% for the winner
- Ravens at Browns CLE 13–3 · replay 86% for the winner
- Dolphins at Bills BUF 32–29 · replay 81% for the winner
- Falcons at Saints NO 21–18 · replay 79% for the winner
- Cowboys at Jaguars JAX 40–34 · replay 36% for the winner
- Lions at Jets DET 20–17 · replay 64% for the winner
- Chiefs at Texans KC 30–24 · replay 99% for the winner
- Eagles at Bears PHI 25–20 · replay 84% for the winner
- Steelers at Panthers PIT 24–16 · replay 81% for the winner
- Patriots at Raiders LV 30–24 · replay 28% for the winner
- Bengals at Buccaneers CIN 34–23 · replay 46% for the winner
- Titans at Chargers LAC 17–14 · replay 89% for the winner
- Giants at Commanders NYG 20–12 · replay 64% for the winner
- Rams at Packers GB 24–12 · replay 99% for the winner