luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 15 2022 · December 18, 2022

Titans at Chargers, Week 15 2022: who deserved to win?

The Chargers beat the Titans 17–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Chargers win 9 of 10. The Titans had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 16 points of win probability to the Titans.

An off day for the Titans: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Chargers they would win 41% of the time; with this day’s form, 11%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Chargers were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:08 left): C. Dicker made a 43-yard field goal, worth 11 points of win probability to the Chargers.

Final

Tennessee Titans 14
Los Angeles Chargers 17

December 18, 2022 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Chargers −3

Luck index +11 Chargers about even · −11 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 1, Chargers win 9.

  1. 1 TEN 30 LAC 20
  2. 2 TEN 13 LAC 16
  3. 3 TEN 17 LAC 23
  4. 4 TEN 3 LAC 12
  5. 5 TEN 17 LAC 30
  6. 6 TEN 14 LAC 30
  7. 7 TEN 6 LAC 24
  8. 8 TEN 23 LAC 45
  9. 9 TEN 24 LAC 51
  10. 10 TEN 7 LAC 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Titans

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Chargers they would win 41% of the time; with this day’s form, 11%.

30 points apart for the Titans: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Titans offenseEPA per play gained −0.01 +0.10 worse by 0.11
Titans defenseEPA per play allowed +0.04 +0.10 better by 0.05
Chargers offenseEPA per play gained +0.04 +0.11 worse by 0.07
Chargers defenseEPA per play allowed −0.01 +0.13 better by 0.14

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 11% of them, Chargers 89%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chargers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+0.8%
Titans by 9–162.9%
Titans by 1–86.3%
Level after regulation1.1%
Chargers by 1–815.7%
Chargers by 9–1619.9%
Chargers by 17+53.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.9 points to the Chargers: the final margin was Chargers by 3, without the luck Titans by 0.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Bullock, 51 yds missed · 69% expected
  • C. Dicker, 43 yds made · 86% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Titans 6 for 62 yards, Chargers 3 for 20 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Chop Block on the Titans, 12 yards +4% LAC +1.8 pts
Q2 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards +1% LAC +0.8 pts
Q2 4:03 Offensive Holding on the Titans (Austin Hooper), 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% LAC +1.6 pts
Q2 1:35 False Start on the Chargers (Josh Palmer), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TEN +0.5 pts
Q3 13:53 Illegal Use of Hands on the Titans (Mario Edwards), 5 yards +1% LAC +0.3 pts
Q3 9:19 Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards +2% TEN +0.9 pts
Q4 9:47 Offensive Holding on the Titans (Austin Hooper), 10 yards +4% LAC +1.4 pts
Q4 7:50 Face Mask on the Titans (Kevin Byard), 15 yards +2% LAC +1.8 pts
Q4 0:14 Delay of Game on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TEN +0.3 pts

Titans penalties, every game · Chargers penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Chargers’ chance of winning

As low as 40% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chargers were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 4:03 Offensive Holding on the Titans (Austin Hooper), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 6 flags in 2638 snaps before, position avg 1 per 282 +6% LAC LAC: Turnover
2 Q2 0:12 The Chargers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws +8% TEN LAC: Punt
3 Q3 12:33 The Titans fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% TEN TEN: Punt
4 Q3 8:22 D. Carter dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 48 catchable balls before this +6% TEN LAC: Punt
5 Q3 6:40 The Chargers converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +7% LAC LAC: Turnover
6 Q4 14:19 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +6% LAC TEN: Missed field goal
7 Q4 4:53 The Titans fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% TEN TEN: Punt
8 Q4 0:08 C. Dicker made a 43-yard field goalKicks · 86% expected for him +11% LAC –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Derwin James (LAC FS), out · 0.7 pts
  • J.C. Jackson (LAC CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Austin Johnson (LAC NT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Christian Covington (LAC NT), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Kristian Fulton (TEN CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Denico Autry (TEN DE), out · 0.5 pts
  • Amani Hooker (TEN FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • David Long (TEN LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Elijah Molden (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Treylon Burks (TEN WR), out · 0.2 pts
  • Teair Tart (TEN DT), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 50% · Chargers 50%

Final margin
Chargers by 3
Luck in points
3.9 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
Titans by 0.9
Replay with same day's form
Titans 11% · Chargers 89% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2022 games · Titans · Chargers

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