luckadjusted

Week 15 2022 · December 18, 2022

Titans at Chargers, Week 15 2022: who deserved to win?

The Chargers beat the Titans 17–14, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Chargers win 9 of 10. The Titans had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 3.1 points to the Titans.

Before kickoff the Chargers were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:51 left): the Titans converted 3rd & 1, worth 14 points of win probability to the Titans.

Final

Tennessee Titans 14
Los Angeles Chargers 17

December 18, 2022 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Chargers −3

Luck index +11 Chargers about even · −11 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 1, Chargers win 9.

  1. 1 TEN 28 LAC 21
  2. 2 TEN 10 LAC 12
  3. 3 TEN 27 LAC 32
  4. 4 TEN 17 LAC 25
  5. 5 TEN 19 LAC 31
  6. 6 TEN 16 LAC 32
  7. 7 TEN 10 LAC 29
  8. 8 TEN 3 LAC 26
  9. 9 TEN 17 LAC 43
  10. 10 TEN 12 LAC 45

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 11% of them, Chargers 89%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chargers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+0.9%
Titans by 9–162.5%
Titans by 1–86.8%
Level after regulation2.1%
Chargers by 1–816.8%
Chargers by 9–1620.5%
Chargers by 17+50.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Chargers by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Titans by 5.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Bullock, 51 yds missed · 70% expected
  • C. Dicker, 43 yds made · 85% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Chargers’ chance of winning

As low as 40% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chargers were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 0:12 The Chargers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 44% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +8% TEN LAC: Punt
2 Q3 13:10 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +8% TEN LAC: Punt
3 Q3 12:33 The Titans fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% TEN TEN: Punt
4 Q3 8:22 D. Carter dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 48 catchable balls before this +7% TEN LAC: Punt
5 Q4 14:19 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +11% LAC TEN: Missed field goal
6 Q4 4:53 The Titans fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% TEN TEN: Punt
7 Q4 0:51 The Titans converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected +14% TEN TEN: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:08 C. Dicker made 43-yard field goalKicks · 85% expected for him +11% LAC –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Derwin James (LAC FS), out · 0.7 pts
  • J.C. Jackson (LAC CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Austin Johnson (LAC NT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Christian Covington (LAC NT), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Kristian Fulton (TEN CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Denico Autry (TEN DE), out · 0.5 pts
  • Amani Hooker (TEN FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • David Long (TEN LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Elijah Molden (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Treylon Burks (TEN WR), out · 0.2 pts
  • Teair Tart (TEN DT), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 78% · Chargers 22%

Final margin
Chargers by 3
Luck in points
8.8 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
Titans by 5.8
Replay with same day's form
Titans 11% · Chargers 89% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2022 games · Titans · Chargers

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