luckadjusted

Week 15 2022 · December 17, 2022

Colts at Vikings, Week 15 2022: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Colts 39–36, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Vikings win 9 of 10. The Colts had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 3.1 points to the Colts.

An off day for the Colts: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Vikings they would win 46% of the time; with this day’s form, 8%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Vikings were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (QOT, 3:49 left): the Colts fumbled and recovered it themselves, worth 22 points of win probability to the Colts.

Final (OT)

Indianapolis Colts 36
Minnesota Vikings 39

December 17, 2022 · U.S. Bank Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −3.5

Luck index +8 Vikings about even · −8 Colts

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Colts win 1, Vikings win 9.

  1. 1 IND 34 MIN 24
  2. 2 IND 29 MIN 31
  3. 3 IND 34 MIN 40
  4. 4 IND 28 MIN 38
  5. 5 IND 27 MIN 40
  6. 6 IND 13 MIN 29
  7. 7 IND 38 MIN 58
  8. 8 IND 22 MIN 46
  9. 9 IND 26 MIN 56
  10. 10 IND 15 MIN 54

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Colts

They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Vikings they would win 46% of the time; with this day’s form, 8%.

39 points apart for the Colts: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Colts offenseEPA per play gained +0.03 +0.07 worse by 0.04
Colts defenseEPA per play allowed −0.34 +0.07 better by 0.41
Vikings offenseEPA per play gained −0.34 +0.10 worse by 0.43
Vikings defenseEPA per play allowed +0.03 +0.11 better by 0.08

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Colts win 8% of them, Vikings 92%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Colts by 17+0.8%
Colts by 9–162.2%
Colts by 1–84.5%
Level after regulation0.9%
Vikings by 1–89.6%
Vikings by 9–1616.1%
Vikings by 17+66.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Vikings by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Vikings by 7.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. McLaughlin, 26 yds made · 97% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 49 yds made · 74% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 27 yds made · 97% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 52 yds made · 69% expected
  • G. Joseph, 40 yds made · 89% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Vikings’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Vikings were ahead in it, below while the Colts were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:20 Blocked punt by the ColtsSpecial teams +19% IND IND: Opp touchdown
2 Q4 2:15 The Vikings’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +14% MIN MIN: Punt
3 QOT 9:20 Roughing the Passer on the Colts (DeForest Buckner), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 7 flags in 3747 snaps before, position avg 1 per 303 +14% MIN MIN: Punt
4 QOT 6:09 Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yardsJudgment calls +14% IND IND: Punt
5 QOT 3:49 The Colts fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +22% IND IND: Punt
6 QOT 2:54 The Colts converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +17% IND IND: Punt
7 QOT 0:20 Defensive Delay of Game on the Colts (Ifeadi Odenigbo), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 4 flags in 1618 snaps before, position avg 1 per 277 +12% MIN MIN: Field goal
8 QOT 0:07 G. Joseph made 40-yard field goalKicks · 89% expected for him +11% MIN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Garrett Bradbury (MIN C), out · 0.6 pts
  • Cameron Dantzler (MIN CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Blake Brandel (MIN T), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Kenny Moore (IND CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Tyquan Lewis (IND DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Colts 23% · Vikings 77%

Final margin
Vikings by 3
Luck in points
4.4 for the Colts
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 7.4
Replay with same day's form
Colts 8% · Vikings 92% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2022 games · Colts · Vikings

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