Week 15 2022 · December 18, 2022
Falcons at Saints, Week 15 2022: who deserved to win?
The Saints beat the Falcons 21–18 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Falcons had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 3.0 points to the Falcons.
Before kickoff the Saints were 64% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:13 left): the Falcons were stopped on 4th & 5, worth 18 points of win probability to the Saints.
Final
 Atlanta Falcons | 18 |
|---|---|
 New Orleans Saints | 21 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +33 Saints lucky · −33 Falcons
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Falcons win 3, Saints win 7.
- 1 ATL 27 NO 13
- 2 ATL 23 NO 16
- 3 ATL 27 NO 24
- 4 ATL 10 NO 13
- 5 ATL 14 NO 19
- 6 ATL 23 NO 31
- 7 ATL 10 NO 20
- 8 ATL 16 NO 30
- 9 ATL 13 NO 31
- 10 ATL 7 NO 31
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Falcons win 33% of them, Saints 67%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Falcons by 17+ | 3.7% |
| Falcons by 9–16 | 8.6% |
| Falcons by 1–8 | 16.7% |
| Level after regulation | 4.1% |
| Saints by 1–8 | 24.2% |
| Saints by 9–16 | 20.4% |
| Saints by 17+ | 22.3% |
Where the luck was
Take the luck out
The final margin was Saints by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Saints by 0.8.
When it happened
Saints’ chance of winning
As low as 50% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:18 | The Saints converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +7% NO | NO: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 10:12 | The Saints converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +8% NO | NO: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 7:29 | The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expectedThe Saints fumbled and the Falcons recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +13% ATL | NO: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 12:58 | The Falcons converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected | +6% ATL | ATL: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 10:51 | The Falcons converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +7% ATL | ATL: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 6:20 | The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +7% ATL | NO: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 2:17 | The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +7% NO | ATL: Turnover |
| 8 | Q4 2:13 | The Falcons were stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expectedThe Falcons fumbled and the Saints recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +18% NO | ATL: End of game |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Marcus Mariota (ATL QB), out (IR), replaced by d.ridder · 2.6 pts
- Kyle Pitts (ATL TE), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
- Ta'Quon Graham (ATL DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Rashad Fenton (ATL CB), out · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Falcons 16% · Saints 84%
- Final margin
- Saints by 3
- Luck in points
- 2.2 for the Saints
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Saints by 0.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Falcons 33% · Saints 67% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2022 games · 
Falcons · 
Saints
More from Week 15 2022
- 49ers at Seahawks SF 21–13 · replay 89% for the winner
- Colts at Vikings MIN 39–36 · replay 92% for the winner
- Ravens at Browns CLE 13–3 · replay 79% for the winner
- Dolphins at Bills BUF 32–29 · replay 71% for the winner
- Cowboys at Jaguars JAX 40–34 · replay 36% for the winner
- Lions at Jets DET 20–17 · replay 68% for the winner
- Chiefs at Texans KC 30–24 · replay 97% for the winner
- Eagles at Bears PHI 25–20 · replay 89% for the winner
- Steelers at Panthers PIT 24–16 · replay 87% for the winner
- Cardinals at Broncos DEN 24–15 · replay 87% for the winner
- Patriots at Raiders LV 30–24 · replay 41% for the winner
- Bengals at Buccaneers CIN 34–23 · replay 47% for the winner
- Titans at Chargers LAC 17–14 · replay 89% for the winner
- Giants at Commanders NYG 20–12 · replay 47% for the winner
- Rams at Packers GB 24–12 · replay 99% for the winner