luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 15 2022 · December 18, 2022

Falcons at Saints, Week 15 2022: who deserved to win?

The Saints beat the Falcons 21–18, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Saints were 64% favorites.

Final

Atlanta Falcons 18
New Orleans Saints 21

December 18, 2022 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Closing line: Saints −5

Luck index +21 Saints about even · −21 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 2, Saints win 8.

  1. 1 ATL 24 NO 12
  2. 2 ATL 11 NO 7
  3. 3 ATL 33 NO 35
  4. 4 ATL 34 NO 38
  5. 5 ATL 13 NO 20
  6. 6 ATL 6 NO 16
  7. 7 ATL 20 NO 33
  8. 8 ATL 7 NO 24
  9. 9 ATL 14 NO 35
  10. 10 ATL 14 NO 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 21% of them, Saints 79%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+2.0%
Falcons by 9–166.2%
Falcons by 1–812.7%
Level after regulation2.4%
Saints by 1–825.2%
Saints by 9–1620.9%
Saints by 17+30.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.6 points to the Saints: the final margin was Saints by 3, without the luck Saints by 1.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Falcons 3 for 30 yards, Saints 6 for 46 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:41 Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Tyrann Mathieu), 19 yards +2% ATL +0.8 pts
Q1 3:10 False Start on the Saints (Andy Dalton), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ATL +0.8 pts
Q2 5:54 False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NO +0.5 pts
Q3 14:17 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ATL +0.5 pts
Q3 5:28 False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ATL +0.8 pts
Q3 3:39 Roughing the Passer on the Falcons (Rashaan Evans), 15 yards +4% NO +1.0 pts
Q3 2:52 Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints, 11 yards +3% ATL +1.2 pts
Q4 7:07 Face Mask on the Saints (Cameron Jordan), 1 yard 0% ATL 0.0 pts
Q4 6:16 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards +4% NO +0.9 pts

Falcons penalties, every game · Saints penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Saints’ chance of winning

As low as 50% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Saints were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:18 The Saints converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +7% NO NO: Touchdown
2 Q1 10:12 The Saints converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +6% NO NO: Touchdown
3 Q2 7:29 The Saints fumbled and the Falcons recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% ATL NO: Punt
4 Q2 1:03 The Falcons converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +5% ATL ATL: Punt
5 Q3 10:51 The Falcons converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +5% ATL ATL: Touchdown
6 Q4 6:20 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +7% ATL NO: Punt
7 Q4 2:17 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +6% NO ATL: Turnover
8 Q4 2:13 The Falcons fumbled and the Saints recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% NO ATL: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Marcus Mariota (ATL QB), out (IR), replaced by d.ridder · 2.6 pts
  • Kyle Pitts (ATL TE), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Ta'Quon Graham (ATL DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Rashad Fenton (ATL CB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 20% · Saints 80%

Final margin
Saints by 3
Luck in points
1.6 for the Saints
Luck-adjusted margin
Saints by 1.4
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 21% · Saints 79% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2022 games · Falcons · Saints

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