luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 15 2022 · December 18, 2022

Lions at Jets, Week 15 2022: who deserved to win?

The Lions beat the Jets 20–17, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10. The Jets had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Jets.

Before kickoff the Jets were 56% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:01 left): G. Zuerlein missed a 58-yard field goal, worth 31 points of win probability to the Lions.

Final

Detroit Lions 20
New York Jets 17

December 18, 2022 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Jets −2

Luck index +36 Lions lucky · −36 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lions win 6, Jets win 4.

  1. 1 DET 27 NYJ 3
  2. 2 DET 23 NYJ 7
  3. 3 DET 13 NYJ 0
  4. 4 DET 18 NYJ 10
  5. 5 DET 24 NYJ 20
  6. 6 DET 12 NYJ 10
  7. 7 DET 17 NYJ 20
  8. 8 DET 17 NYJ 23
  9. 9 DET 19 NYJ 30
  10. 10 DET 13 NYJ 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Lions win 64% of them, Jets 36%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lions by 17+14.9%
Lions by 9–1619.4%
Lions by 1–830.1%
Level after regulation2.0%
Jets by 1–819.7%
Jets by 9–169.6%
Jets by 17+4.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.0 points to the Jets: the final margin was Lions by 3, without the luck Lions by 5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Badgley, 31 yds made · 92% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 34 yds made · 91% expected
  • M. Badgley, 34 yds made · 90% expected
  • M. Badgley, 54 yds missed · 49% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 58 yds missed · 52% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Lions 6 for 52 yards, Jets 2 for 20 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 6:00 Delay of Game on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NYJ 0.0 pts
Q1 6:00 Illegal Formation on the Lions (Justin Jackson), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +6% DET +1.3 pts
Q1 5:08 Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions (DeShon Elliott), 12 yards +3% NYJ +1.7 pts
Q2 8:51 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards +3% NYJ +0.9 pts
Q2 8:08 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards +3% NYJ +0.9 pts
Q2 2:03 Intentional Grounding on the Jets (Zach Wilson), 10 yards +3% DET +0.9 pts
Q3 11:15 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% DET +2.4 pts
Q3 1:19 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards +4% NYJ +1.3 pts

Lions penalties, every game · Jets penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 80%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Lions were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:59 The Lions were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected +11% NYJ DET: Opp touchdown
2 Q1 6:13 Return touchdown by the LionsSpecial teams +13% DET DET: Opp touchdown
3 Q3 11:58 M. Badgley made a 34-yard field goalKicks · 90% expected for him +10% DET DET: Punt
4 Q4 7:57 M. Badgley missed a 54-yard field goalKicks · 49% expected for him, 13 of 27 from 45+ before +17% NYJ DET: Touchdown
5 Q4 2:00 The Lions converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +11% DET DET: Touchdown
6 Q4 1:22 The Jets converted 3rd & 193rd & 4th downs · 18% expected +13% NYJ NYJ: Missed field goal
7 Q4 0:14 The Jets converted 4th & 183rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +15% NYJ NYJ: Missed field goal
8 Q4 0:01 G. Zuerlein missed a 58-yard field goalKicks · 52% expected for him, 39 of 56 from 45+ before +31% DET –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Mike White (NYJ QB), out, replaced by z.wilson · 2.5 pts
  • Corey Davis (NYJ WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Quinnen Williams (NYJ NT), out · 0.5 pts
  • Cedric Ogbuehi (NYJ T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Lamarcus Joyner (NYJ SS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Max Mitchell (NYJ T), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Alijah Vera-Tucker (NYJ G), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lions 93% · Jets 7%

Final margin
Lions by 3
Luck in points
2.0 for the Jets
Luck-adjusted margin
Lions by 5.0
Replay with same day's form
Lions 64% · Jets 36% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2022 games · Lions · Jets

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