luckadjusted

Week 15 2022 · December 18, 2022

Lions at Jets, Week 15 2022: who deserved to win?

The Lions beat the Jets 20–17 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Jets had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 3.4 points to the Jets.

Before kickoff the Jets were 56% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:00 left): the Lions converted 4th & 1, worth 48 points of win probability to the Lions.

Final

Detroit Lions 20
New York Jets 17

December 18, 2022 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Jets −2

Luck index +32 Lions lucky · −32 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lions win 7, Jets win 3.

  1. 1 DET 34 NYJ 10
  2. 2 DET 30 NYJ 13
  3. 3 DET 20 NYJ 7
  4. 4 DET 16 NYJ 7
  5. 5 DET 35 NYJ 28
  6. 6 DET 10 NYJ 7
  7. 7 DET 16 NYJ 14
  8. 8 DET 10 NYJ 13
  9. 9 DET 17 NYJ 24
  10. 10 DET 6 NYJ 20

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Lions win 68% of them, Jets 32%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lions by 17+15.3%
Lions by 9–1621.7%
Lions by 1–829.7%
Level after regulation2.0%
Jets by 1–819.4%
Jets by 9–168.5%
Jets by 17+3.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Lions by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Lions by 4.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Badgley, 31 yds made · 92% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 34 yds made · 90% expected
  • M. Badgley, 34 yds made · 90% expected
  • M. Badgley, 54 yds missed · 48% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 58 yds missed · 50% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 80%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Lions were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:06 The Lions converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +11% DET DET: Turnover on downs
2 Q1 6:59 The Lions were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +13% NYJ DET: Opp touchdown
3 Q1 6:13 Return touchdown by the LionsSpecial teams +13% DET DET: Opp touchdown
4 Q4 7:57 M. Badgley missed 54-yard field goalKicks · 48% expected for him, 13 of 27 from 45+ before +16% NYJ DET: Touchdown
5 Q4 2:00 The Lions converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +48% DET DET: Touchdown
6 Q4 1:22 The Jets converted 3rd & 193rd & 4th downs · 17% expected +13% NYJ NYJ: Missed field goal
7 Q4 0:14 The Jets converted 4th & 183rd & 4th downs · 17% expected +15% NYJ NYJ: Missed field goal
8 Q4 0:01 G. Zuerlein missed 58-yard field goalKicks · 50% expected for him, 39 of 56 from 45+ before +29% DET –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Mike White (NYJ QB), out, replaced by z.wilson · 2.5 pts
  • Corey Davis (NYJ WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Quinnen Williams (NYJ NT), out · 0.5 pts
  • Cedric Ogbuehi (NYJ T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Lamarcus Joyner (NYJ SS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Max Mitchell (NYJ T), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Alijah Vera-Tucker (NYJ G), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lions 92% · Jets 8%

Final margin
Lions by 3
Luck in points
1.4 for the Jets
Luck-adjusted margin
Lions by 4.4
Replay with same day's form
Lions 68% · Jets 32% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2022 games · Lions · Jets

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