luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 15 2022 · December 17, 2022

Dolphins at Bills, Week 15 2022: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Dolphins 32–29, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Bills were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 4:05 left): Roughing the Kicker on the Bills, 15 yards, worth 16 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Final

Miami Dolphins 29
Buffalo Bills 32

December 17, 2022 · New Era Field · Closing line: Bills −7

Luck index +19 Bills about even · −19 Dolphins

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Dolphins win 2, Bills win 8.

  1. 1 MIA 23 BUF 9
  2. 2 MIA 13 BUF 10
  3. 3 MIA 20 BUF 22
  4. 4 MIA 27 BUF 31
  5. 5 MIA 29 BUF 36
  6. 6 MIA 23 BUF 34
  7. 7 MIA 24 BUF 38
  8. 8 MIA 10 BUF 28
  9. 9 MIA 14 BUF 37
  10. 10 MIA 20 BUF 51

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Dolphins win 19% of them, Bills 81%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Dolphins by 17+2.2%
Dolphins by 9–164.8%
Dolphins by 1–810.8%
Level after regulation1.7%
Bills by 1–820.0%
Bills by 9–1621.5%
Bills by 17+39.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.6 points to the Dolphins: the final margin was Bills by 3, without the luck Bills by 6.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Sanders, 39 yds made · 88% expected
  • J. Sanders, 21 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Sanders, 47 yds made · 73% expected
  • T. Bass, 25 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Dolphins 8 for 51 yards, Bills 7 for 51 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:24 False Start on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BUF +0.7 pts
Q1 13:18 Offensive Holding on the Bills (Taiwan Jones), 7 yards +2% MIA +0.3 pts
Q1 8:50 False Start on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% BUF +0.6 pts
Q1 1:05 Horse Collar Tackle on the Bills (Taron Johnson), 4 yards +2% MIA +0.8 pts
Q2 13:28 False Start on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIA +0.3 pts
Q2 0:26 Defensive Holding on the Dolphins (Noah Igbinoghene), 5 yards 0% BUF +0.4 pts
Q2 0:22 Defensive Offside on the Dolphins (Jaelan Phillips), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BUF 0.0 pts
Q2 0:12 Defensive Holding on the Dolphins (Xavien Howard), 5 yards +3% BUF +0.3 pts
Q3 10:26 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards +6% MIA +1.9 pts
Q3 10:20 False Start on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIA +0.4 pts
Q3 8:58 Illegal Contact on the Bills (Dane Jackson), 5 yards +1% MIA +0.3 pts
Q3 4:05 Roughing the Kicker on the Bills, 15 yards +16% MIA +4.0 pts
Q4 10:16 Unnecessary Roughness on the Dolphins (Elandon Roberts), 4 yards +2% BUF +0.8 pts
Q4 9:02 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Dolphins, 1 yard · pre-snap 0% BUF 0.0 pts
Q4 0:50 Defensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins, 21 yards +10% BUF +2.2 pts

Dolphins penalties, every game · Bills penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Bills’ chance of winning

As low as 16% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bills were ahead in it, below while the Dolphins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 13:18 The Bills converted 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +6% BUF BUF: Touchdown
2 Q3 4:05 Roughing the Kicker on the Bills, 15 yardsJudgment calls +16% MIA MIA: Touchdown
3 Q4 14:47 The Bills fumbled and the Dolphins recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% MIA BUF: Touchdown
4 Q4 11:56 The Bills fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% BUF BUF: Touchdown
5 Q4 9:06 The Bills converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +11% BUF BUF: Touchdown
6 Q4 9:02 The Bills’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedDefensive Too Many Men on Field on the Dolphins, 1 yardPre-snap flags +9% BUF BUF: Field goal
7 Q4 3:02 The Bills converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +7% BUF BUF: Field goal
8 Q4 0:50 Defensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins, 21 yardsJudgment calls +10% BUF BUF: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Xavier Rhodes (BUF CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Christian Benford (BUF CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Von Miller (BUF LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Ryan Bates (BUF C), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jordan Phillips (BUF DE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Liam Eichenberg (MIA T), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Brandon Jones (MIA SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Eric Rowe (MIA SS), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Dolphins 15% · Bills 85%

Final margin
Bills by 3
Luck in points
3.6 for the Dolphins
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 6.6
Replay with same day's form
Dolphins 19% · Bills 81% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2022 games · Dolphins · Bills

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