luckadjusted

Week 17 2024 · December 29, 2024

Packers at Vikings, Week 17 2024: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Packers 27–25, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Vikings win 8 of 10. The Packers had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 5.5 points to the Packers.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q2, 7:33 left): the Packers were stopped on 4th & 2, worth 12 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

Green Bay Packers 25
Minnesota Vikings 27

December 29, 2024 · U.S. Bank Stadium · Closing line: Packers −1

Luck index +19 Vikings about even · −19 Packers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Packers win 2, Vikings win 8.

  1. 1 GB 22 MIN 10
  2. 2 GB 22 MIN 19
  3. 3 GB 21 MIN 23
  4. 4 GB 31 MIN 35
  5. 5 GB 27 MIN 33
  6. 6 GB 13 MIN 23
  7. 7 GB 10 MIN 23
  8. 8 GB 16 MIN 33
  9. 9 GB 20 MIN 43
  10. 10 GB 16 MIN 45

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Packers win 19% of them, Vikings 81%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Packers by 17+2.1%
Packers by 9–165.8%
Packers by 1–811.0%
Level after regulation2.3%
Vikings by 1–826.2%
Vikings by 9–1620.0%
Vikings by 17+32.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Vikings by 2. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Vikings by 2.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Reichard, 57 yds missed · 65% expected
  • B. McManus, 22 yds made · 100% expected
  • W. Reichard, 25 yds made · 99% expected
  • W. Reichard, 50 yds made · 75% expected
  • W. Reichard, 43 yds missed · 85% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Vikings’ chance of winning

As low as 42% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Vikings were ahead in it, below while the Packers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:16 The Packers fumbled and the Vikings recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% MIN GB: Punt
2 Q1 6:07 W. Reichard missed 57-yard field goalKicks · 65% expected for him, 9 of 11 from 45+ before +9% GB MIN: Touchdown
3 Q1 4:59 The Packers converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +7% GB GB: Field goal
4 Q1 1:50 B. McManus made 22-yard field goalKicks · 100% expected for him +5% MIN GB: Turnover on downs
5 Q2 14:20 The Vikings converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +8% MIN MIN: Touchdown
6 Q2 7:33 The Packers were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +12% MIN GB: Punt
7 Q4 4:04 The Packers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +6% GB GB: Touchdown
8 Q4 3:04 The Packers converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +8% GB GB: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Christian Watson (GB WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Jaire Alexander (GB CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Quay Walker (GB LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jordan Morgan (GB T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Evan Williams (GB SS), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Packers 27% · Vikings 73%

Final margin
Vikings by 2
Luck in points
none
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 2.0
Replay with same day's form
Packers 19% · Vikings 81% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2024 games · Packers · Vikings

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