luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 17 2024 · December 29, 2024

Packers at Vikings, Week 17 2024: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Packers 27–25, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10. The Packers had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 14 points of win probability to the Packers.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q2, 7:33 left): the Packers were stopped on 4th & 2, worth 12 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

Green Bay Packers 25
Minnesota Vikings 27

December 29, 2024 · U.S. Bank Stadium · Closing line: Packers −1

Luck index +22 Vikings about even · −22 Packers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Packers win 2, Vikings win 8.

  1. 1 GB 26 MIN 14
  2. 2 GB 37 MIN 34
  3. 3 GB 31 MIN 33
  4. 4 GB 14 MIN 19
  5. 5 GB 16 MIN 23
  6. 6 GB 20 MIN 30
  7. 7 GB 24 MIN 37
  8. 8 GB 2 MIN 20
  9. 9 GB 3 MIN 24
  10. 10 GB 3 MIN 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Packers win 22% of them, Vikings 78%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Packers by 17+2.4%
Packers by 9–165.9%
Packers by 1–812.2%
Level after regulation2.4%
Vikings by 1–825.3%
Vikings by 9–1621.4%
Vikings by 17+30.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.1 points to the Vikings: the final margin was Vikings by 2, without the luck Vikings by 1.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Reichard, 57 yds missed · 67% expected
  • B. McManus, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • W. Reichard, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • W. Reichard, 50 yds made · 73% expected
  • W. Reichard, 43 yds missed · 86% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Packers 7 for 51 yards, Vikings 7 for 47 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 4:21 Low Block on the Vikings (Harrison Smith), 10 yards +4% GB +1.3 pts
Q2 15:00 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% GB +0.6 pts
Q2 9:41 Defensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Byron Murphy), 12 yards +5% GB +1.1 pts
Q2 6:06 Defensive Pass Interference on the Packers (Keisean Nixon), 17 yards +2% MIN +1.0 pts
Q2 1:36 Illegal Formation on the Packers, 4 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +3% MIN +1.2 pts
Q2 0:04 Defensive Offside on the Packers (Edgerrin Cooper), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% MIN +0.7 pts
Q3 11:26 Delay of Game on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% GB +0.7 pts
Q3 9:44 Kickoff Short of Landing Zone on the Vikings (Will Reichard), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% GB 0.0 pts
Q3 9:15 Offensive Too Many Men on Field on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIN +0.6 pts
Q4 14:38 Illegal Formation on the Packers, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +1% MIN +1.6 pts
Q4 7:37 Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% MIN +3.4 pts
Q4 5:19 Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% GB +2.8 pts
Q4 4:43 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Packers (Karl Brooks), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIN +0.4 pts
Q4 3:29 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% GB +0.5 pts

Packers penalties, every game · Vikings penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Vikings’ chance of winning

As low as 42% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Vikings were ahead in it, below while the Packers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:16 The Packers fumbled and the Vikings recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% MIN GB: Punt
2 Q1 6:07 W. Reichard missed a 57-yard field goalKicks · 67% expected for him, 9 of 11 from 45+ before +10% GB MIN: Touchdown
3 Q1 4:59 The Packers converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +7% GB GB: Field goal
4 Q2 14:20 The Vikings converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +8% MIN MIN: Touchdown
5 Q2 9:41 Defensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Byron Murphy), 12 yardsJudgment calls · 23 flags in 5594 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +5% GB GB: Turnover on downs
6 Q2 7:33 The Packers were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +12% MIN GB: Punt
7 Q4 5:19 Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +5% GB GB: Touchdown
8 Q4 4:04 The Packers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +5% GB GB: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Christian Watson (GB WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Jaire Alexander (GB CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Quay Walker (GB LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jordan Morgan (GB T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Evan Williams (GB SS), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Packers 28% · Vikings 72%

Final margin
Vikings by 2
Luck in points
0.2 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 1.8
Replay with same day's form
Packers 22% · Vikings 78% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2024 games · Packers · Vikings

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