luckadjusted

Week 17 2024 · December 29, 2024

Jets at Bills, Week 17 2024: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Jets 40–14, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 9 of 10. The Jets had the bounces: drops alone were worth 2.0 points to the Jets.

Before kickoff the Bills were 77% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 11:22 left): Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 14 points of win probability to the Jets.

Final

New York Jets 14
Buffalo Bills 40

December 29, 2024 · New Era Field · Closing line: Bills −10

Luck index +9 Bills about even · −9 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jets win 1, Bills win 9.

  1. 1 NYJ 30 BUF 24
  2. 2 NYJ 17 BUF 19
  3. 3 NYJ 21 BUF 26
  4. 4 NYJ 10 BUF 19
  5. 5 NYJ 7 BUF 17
  6. 6 NYJ 17 BUF 31
  7. 7 NYJ 17 BUF 34
  8. 8 NYJ 16 BUF 37
  9. 9 NYJ 6 BUF 30
  10. 10 NYJ 6 BUF 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jets win 9% of them, Bills 91%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 26.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jets by 17+0.4%
Jets by 9–162.2%
Jets by 1–85.8%
Level after regulation1.6%
Bills by 1–816.2%
Bills by 9–1621.6%
Bills by 17+52.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Bills by 26. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bills by 24.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

When it happened

Bills’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bills were ahead in it, below while the Jets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:22 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +14% NYJ NYJ: Turnover on downs
2 Q1 10:53 The Bills converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +11% BUF BUF: Touchdown
3 Q1 3:34 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +10% BUF BUF: Punt
4 Q1 2:18 The Jets were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +6% BUF NYJ: Turnover
5 Q2 8:52 The Jets were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +8% BUF NYJ: Safety
6 Q2 1:37 Offensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Amari Cooper), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 17 flags in 5190 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +5% NYJ NYJ: Punt
7 Q3 10:10 The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +6% NYJ BUF: Punt
8 Q3 7:32 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 193rd & 4th downs · 15% expectedThe Jets threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's handsUnnecessary Roughness on the Jets (Aaron Rodgers), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 5384 snaps before, position avg 1 per 658 +5% BUF NYJ: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kaiir Elam (BUF CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Damar Hamlin (BUF SS), out · 0.3 pts
  • Tyron Smith (NYJ T), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Jalen Mills (NYJ CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Olumuyiwa Fashanu (NYJ T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Anders Carlson (NYJ K), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jets 0% · Bills 100%

Final margin
Bills by 26
Luck in points
1.6 for the Bills
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 24.4
Replay with same day's form
Jets 9% · Bills 91% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2024 games · Jets · Bills

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