luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 17 2024 · December 29, 2024

Jets at Bills, Week 17 2024: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Jets 40–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Bills were 77% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 11:22 left): Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 14 points of win probability to the Jets.

Final

New York Jets 14
Buffalo Bills 40

December 29, 2024 · New Era Field · Closing line: Bills −10

Luck index +4 Bills about even · −4 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jets win 0, Bills win 10.

  1. 1 NYJ 21 BUF 23
  2. 2 NYJ 10 BUF 15
  3. 3 NYJ 21 BUF 30
  4. 4 NYJ 10 BUF 22
  5. 5 NYJ 29 BUF 44
  6. 6 NYJ 0 BUF 17
  7. 7 NYJ 17 BUF 38
  8. 8 NYJ 10 BUF 34
  9. 9 NYJ 19 BUF 48
  10. 10 NYJ 6 BUF 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jets win 4% of them, Bills 96%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 26.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jets by 17+0.1%
Jets by 9–160.7%
Jets by 1–82.8%
Level after regulation0.7%
Bills by 1–88.3%
Bills by 9–1619.1%
Bills by 17+68.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.6 points to the Bills: the final margin was Bills by 26, without the luck Bills by 25.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Jets 16 for 120 yards, Bills 7 for 60 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:42 Illegal Contact on the Jets (Tony Adams), 5 yards, wiping out the play +1% NYJ +0.4 pts
Q1 13:17 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bills, 15 yards +3% NYJ +1.4 pts
Q1 12:52 Illegal Use of Hands on the Jets (D.J. Reed), 5 yards +3% BUF +1.1 pts
Q1 11:22 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards, wiping out the play +14% NYJ +4.8 pts
Q1 8:20 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Sauce Gardner), 5 yards +3% BUF +1.2 pts
Q1 6:44 Illegal Contact on the Bills (Rasul Douglas), 5 yards +2% NYJ +0.7 pts
Q1 3:34 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards, wiping out the play +10% BUF +3.4 pts
Q2 14:23 Offensive Holding on the Bills (Ray Davis), 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% NYJ +2.0 pts
Q2 13:56 False Start on the Bills (Khalil Shakir), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYJ +0.2 pts
Q2 3:16 False Start on the Jets (Tyler Conklin), 2 yards · pre-snap +1% BUF +0.4 pts
Q2 1:37 Offensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Amari Cooper), 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% NYJ +1.8 pts
Q2 0:39 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jets (Quinnen Williams), 15 yards +1% BUF +0.7 pts
Q3 14:23 Illegal Contact on the Bills (Cole Bishop), 5 yards +3% NYJ +1.8 pts
Q3 12:54 Offensive Holding on the Jets (Allen Lazard), 10 yards +3% BUF +1.1 pts
Q3 11:41 Delay of Game on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BUF +0.8 pts
Q3 8:34 False Start on the Jets, 4 yards · pre-snap +1% BUF +0.5 pts
Q3 7:32 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jets (Aaron Rodgers), 15 yards +1% BUF +1.4 pts
Q3 5:13 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Jets (Jeremy Ruckert), 10 yards +1% BUF +0.9 pts
Q3 3:19 Player Out of Bounds on Kick on the Jets, 5 yards 0% BUF +0.5 pts
Q3 2:22 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jets (Micheal Clemons), 10 yards 0% BUF +1.2 pts
Q3 2:01 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jets (Quinnen Williams), 6 yards 0% BUF +0.4 pts
Q3 0:21 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jets (Solomon Thomas), 8 yards 0% BUF +0.5 pts
Q4 12:37 Illegal Formation on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BUF +0.5 pts

Jets penalties, every game · Bills penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Bills’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bills were ahead in it, below while the Jets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:22 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +14% NYJ NYJ: Turnover on downs
2 Q1 10:53 The Bills converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +10% BUF BUF: Touchdown
3 Q1 3:34 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +10% BUF BUF: Punt
4 Q1 2:18 The Jets were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +6% BUF NYJ: Turnover
5 Q2 14:23 Offensive Holding on the Bills (Ray Davis), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 263 snaps before, position avg 1 per 860 +4% NYJ NYJ: Turnover
6 Q2 8:52 The Jets were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throws +8% BUF NYJ: Safety
7 Q2 1:37 Offensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Amari Cooper), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 17 flags in 5190 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +5% NYJ NYJ: Punt
8 Q3 10:10 The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +6% NYJ BUF: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kaiir Elam (BUF CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Damar Hamlin (BUF SS), out · 0.3 pts
  • Tyron Smith (NYJ T), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Jalen Mills (NYJ CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Olumuyiwa Fashanu (NYJ T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Anders Carlson (NYJ K), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jets 0% · Bills 100%

Final margin
Bills by 26
Luck in points
0.6 for the Bills
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 25.4
Replay with same day's form
Jets 4% · Bills 96% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2024 games · Jets · Bills

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